Ohio State football was just handed their initial College Football Playoff ranking, and here’s the percentage chance they can get in
Coming off of a loss to USC, Ohio State has their initial spot in the first College Football Playoff rankings.
The Ohio State Buckeyes didn’t pick a great time to drop game No. 2 of the season. Ohio State lost on the road to a two-loss USC team that Wisconsin had blown out the week before. The loss came just before the College Football Playoff committee released its initial 2026 rankings Tuesday evening.
Ohio State was ranked No. 11 in the AP Top 25 when it came out Sunday afternoon.
Where Ohio State stands in the initial CFP rankings
In the first CFP rankings of the season, the committee placed Ohio State a spot lower at No. 12.
Two Big Ten teams sit ahead of Ohio State in the College Football Playoff rankings: the Indiana Hoosiers and the UCLA Bruins. With the Buckeyes included, three Big Ten teams are in the field as of right now.
If the playoff started today, Ohio State would miss the field due to a Group of 6 being guaranteed a spot.
These are only the initial rankings, and plenty can change between now and the final reveal. Ohio State could move up by finishing the stretch run with four wins, but the committee’s first look shows the Buckeyes have work to do.
According to the A to Z Sports college football predictor, Ohio State currently has a 56 percent chance to make the field. Going on the road and beating No. 23 Oregon would jump Ohio State up to a 73 percent chance, while a loss would drop them all the way to just 20 percent.
Ohio State has been here before in the 12-team playoff, but never with two losses so early
In the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, Ohio State had to play a first-round game against Tennessee. The Buckeyes took care of business in that one. From there, they went on to beat Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame on their way to a national championship.
Last season didn’t go the same way. Ohio State drew Miami in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff and dropped that game, ending its run earlier than the program certainly envisioned.
Seeding certainly matters, but the Buckeyes have already shown they can win four straight playoff games when it counts.
November is loaded with must-win games for the Buckeyes
Ohio State still has four important regular season games ahead, starting this week with the Oregon Ducks. After that, the Buckeyes will play Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan, all in the month of November.
Every one of those is a must-win game. Ohio State can’t pick up a third loss and expect to make the College Football Playoff. It won’t be easy with Oregon kicking off the stretch and the rivalry game with Michigan waiting at the end.
The good news is the Buckeyes control their own destiny. If Ohio State wins out, it will advance to the CFP for the third straight time in the 12-team format. That would come one year before the playoff expands to 24 teams next season.
The initial rankings give Ohio State a fine spot to work from if it can find its path back to winning. The month of November is everything for this program now.
