The Oklahoma Sooners are 4-3 after beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and South Carolina is next on the schedule. A win there would go a long way for OU. You may think this team is already out of the College Football Playoff race, but that’s not entirely true. It will be extremely hard for Oklahoma to make it. However, the Sooners still have a chance.

A to Z Sports released its College Football Playoff prediction simulator. This is where it stands for Oklahoma:

• 5% chance to make the College Football Playoff – 6% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game – 2% chance to win the SEC – 1% chance at a first-round bye – Less than 1% chance to win the national title

Those numbers aren’t pretty. But they aren’t zero, either.

How each remaining game helps Oklahoma’s playoff odds

The simulator also shows how the rest of the schedule can move the needle. In Week 9 against South Carolina, a win bumps the Sooners’ playoff odds to 9%. If they beat Florida on the road in Week 10, that number jumps to 13%. A Week 11 win over Ole Miss pushes it to 14%.

Then there’s the dream scenario. If OU wins out, gets some help around the conference, finds a way into the SEC title game, and wins it, its playoff odds climb to 99%. Remember, though, the simulator gives Oklahoma only a 6% chance of reaching that game. That’s not likely right now.

So Oklahoma has to stay focused on its own schedule. Win out, finish 9-3, and let the rest play itself out. Florida is ranked No. 17, Ole Miss No. 12, and Missouri No. 23. Those rankings will change, but wins over those teams would look good on the resume when the selection committee starts sorting through two- and three-loss teams.

Who Sooners fans should root for and against

Oklahoma fans will always root against Texas. This year, though, it’s a little more nuanced. Ideally, the Longhorns lose two more games and then win the rest. You still want Texas ranked so that game on the Sooners’ resume keeps some value.

You should want Georgia to win every single game left on its schedule. That makes OU’s bad loss look much better. The same goes for Kentucky. Root for the Wildcats to win every game, too. Don’t worry about Georgia and Kentucky in the playoff race. Both have one loss and are firmly in position for a College Football Playoff spot. The Sooners just won’t reach that level unless Kentucky falls off a cliff.

The teams that matter are the ones above Oklahoma with two losses. Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, and Tennessee all fall into that group. If each of them loses one more game and OU keeps taking care of business, you have to be excited about where Oklahoma’s odds go from there.

You also want Mississippi State to keep winning after this, although that will be tough. The Bulldogs are shutting down Kamario Taylor for the year. The same logic applies to South Carolina. If the Sooners beat the Gamecocks, every win South Carolina picks up afterward makes that victory look better. As for Florida, Ole Miss, and Missouri, it only makes sense to root against them. They’re on Oklahoma’s schedule. If the Sooners beat them, that part handles itself.

LSU and Tennessee are the teams to watch

If you expect Oklahoma to win out, you should root against LSU and Tennessee the hardest. Both have two losses, and both will probably have a better chance of getting in than OU. You want those two to lose every single week, no matter who they’re playing.

Either way, Oklahoma still has a shot at the College Football Playoff. It won’t be easy. In fact, it will be really, really hard. But it starts with beating South Carolina, and the Sooners control that part.