SMU at Louisville final score predictions: Will the Mustangs or Cardinals emerge as a top ACC contender?

A big ACC showdown is taking place in Week 3, and the winner will get a major boost for the race to Charlotte.

Nov 22, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; The Louisville Cardinals and SMU Mustangs team face off during the second half at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Two top ACC contenders square off on Saturday in Louisville in a top 25 battle, as No. 16 SMU comes to town to face the No. 23 Cardinals in what should be a fun game between two teams paced by strong quarterback play early in this season.

Louisville lost a heartbreaker 41-38 on a walk off field goal against top 10 Ole Miss before bouncing back against Villanova last week 59-13. SMU squeaked by Florida State on the road 27-24 and throttled UC Davis last week 56-10.

Who will pick up a big early season conference win? A to Z Sports’ college experts offered their predictions.

Louisville 30, SMU 28

Louisville against SMU is one of the better games in the ACC this season, in my opinion. The Mustangs survived a four-turnover game in Tallahassee in Week 1 before taking UC Davis to the shed, and that program is one of the better in the conference with the HC-QB combo of Rhett Lashlee and Kevin Jennings. But Louisville is no pushover. I like what I saw in the second half against Ole Miss from Lincoln Kienholz, and that offense has some playmakers headlined by running back Isaac Brown. On defense, I expect Clev Lubin to present some matchup problems for SMU.

With Louisville getting this one at home, I’m going with the Cardinals to take down the Mustangs.

Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Alabama

Louisville 34, SMU 31

The current market has Louisville around -1.5 to -2.5, with the total around 59.5. So, I could certainly see this game being very high-scoring. Both offenses have some really, really good pieces. Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz has been extremely efficient. Through two games, he’s thrown for 639 yards, 4 TDs, and no interceptions, while completing 64.4% of his passes. He also threw for 307 yards and 3 TDs against Ole Miss in Louisville’s 41-38 loss.

But SMU’s QB Kevin Jennings has been doing the same. Jennings has been excellent, throwing for 767 yards and 8 TDs through two games. SMU is averaging 442 passing yards per game, while Louisville’s defense is allowing 257 passing yards per game. That alone may pose Louisville’s biggest threat, as it looked very vulnerable on defense against Ole Miss. But not as much as SMU did to Florida State, a very bad offense. I have the Cardinals in this one.

Justin Churchill, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

Louisville 37, SMU 33

I almost went the other way simply because this game is one of those too-close-to-call matchups in my mind, and the panel here has leaned heavily Louisville. Kevin Jennings, when he is on, is simply brilliant. But there are moments that make you scratch your head from time to time, as we saw last year with 13 interceptions to go with 26 touchdown passes.

But I am going with the Cardinals here as well. I have loved what I’ve seen from Lincoln Kienholz this year, who was very good against a playoff semifinalist last year in Ole Miss in the season opener, going for over 300 yards and two passing scores. He’s also run for 111 yards and three touchdowns. His versatility and production is the X-factor in the Cardinals grabbing an early edge among contenders to reach the ACC title game in December.

Craig Smith, A to Z Sports Miami

Louisville 34, SMU 31

I am a big fan of what Jeff Brohm is doing at Louisville. Ever since coming to his alma mater from Purdue, Brohm has continued to build a diverse offense each year he’s been with the Cardinals. This year, the addition of Lincoln Kienholz has changed the offense to a diverse attack with a power quarterback run game. That is something Brohm hasn’t had with his offenses, and he’s still thrown for 639 yards and four touchdowns in his first two games.

It’s not like the Mustangs are in a bad spot either. Kevin Jennings has been ultra productive, throwing for nearly 800 yards and eight touchdowns to his credit. Both of these teams could end up winning the game, but I’m leaning the home team, which will be the Cardinals.

Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports Florida

Louisville 35, SMU 24

I’m taking Louisville in a matchup where I expect the Cardinals to have the advantage at the line of scrimmage. Louisville’s run game should be a major factor, with Isaac Brown capable of turning routine carries into chunk plays and consistently putting the offense in favorable down-and-distance situations. If Louisville can establish that physicality early, it should open up the passing game and give the Cardinals multiple opportunities to put points on the board.

On the other side, I expect Clev Lubin to be a major problem for SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings. Lubin’s pressure should force Jennings to speed up his clock, make throws under duress and potentially create a few costly decisions. SMU will move the ball enough to keep this competitive, but I expect Louisville’s ability to generate explosive runs and disrupt Jennings in the pocket to ultimately separate the teams.

Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame

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