USC and Lincoln Riley are done. No, I’m not trying to get anybody’s hopes up on this Monday morning, but it’s looking like things are going that direction.

As things stand, Riley is still the head coach at USC, and the Trojans just beat Washington. But this program is not moving in the direction a USC program needs to be moving, and the next five weeks look like the stretch that ends his time in Los Angeles.

And you may say, Tegan, they just won a football game. Why are we talking like the man should get fired? I’m sorry, but the writing’s on the wall. You can see it in the fan base, which is at its boiling point. USC took an emotional loss to Oregon the week before, had to bounce back at home against a bad Washington team. I don’t care. Beating a bad team at home doesn’t change where this program sits, or where it’s headed.

USC should never be just hoping for a playoff spot

I always have to remind people of this when we talk about USC. This should be a perennial power in college football. The Trojans should be in the same position as a Miami or an Ohio State. There are no excuses for a brand of that caliber to sit around just hoping for a playoff opportunity. And it’s clear this football team is not there yet.

Now, to be clear, I said going into the season that it was a lot to ask of this coaching staff. USC brought in the No. 1 recruiting class in the country, and that meant a young roster. Yes, the Trojans have their returning quarterback, but there is a ton of youth on this team. Expecting a group that young to put it all together quickly in the Big Ten was always going to be a stretch.

But that’s the problem. Year after year, the explanation changes and the result stays the same. At some point, a program like USC needs to stop accepting the explanation.

The upcoming schedule looks critical for USC

Let’s talk about the next five weeks, because this is where Riley’s future gets decided.

First, USC goes on the road all the way across the country to face Penn State. Say what you want about Penn State, that is not a gimme. A cross-country road trip against a Big Ten program in that environment is a hell of a test for a young roster that just showed how fragile it can be against Oregon.

Then the Trojans go back on the road to face Wisconsin. Then Ohio State comes to Los Angeles. After that, USC gets its bye week before going on the road again to face Indiana.

Look at that stretch. Three of those four games are road trips, and the one home game is against Ohio State. Is there a single week in there you can circle as a comfortable win? I don’t see one.

USC has to go 3-1 or better in that stretch to give itself a real chance at the college football playoff. That’s the bar. Two road wins and either a win over Ohio State or a win in Bloomington, with a young team that hasn’t proven it can handle that kind of pressure. I just don’t see that happening.

Lincoln Riley is running out of runway here

If I don’t see USC getting through that stretch at 3-1 or better, I don’t see Lincoln Riley surviving this season. The fan base is already there. A couple of losses on the road against Penn State and Wisconsin, followed by a bad showing against Ohio State at home, and the noise becomes impossible for the administration to ignore.

Frankly, it doesn’t matter how talented that recruiting class is if the program can’t show it’s on track to compete at the top of the Big Ten right now. USC isn’t paying for a development project. It’s paying for a contender, and it hasn’t gotten one.

That’s where I land. If USC drops at least two games in this four-game stretch, the playoff hopes go with them, and Lincoln Riley is gone. The Trojans will be looking for a new head football coach, and the conversation about who takes over one of the biggest jobs in the entire country is going to start a lot sooner than USC wants it to.