The wait is officially over. Training camp is behind us, the preseason is over, and the roster deadline day has come and gone. All 32 teams will be in action this week, starting Wednesday, when the New England Patriots and Seahawks kick things off with a Super Bowl rematch.

For New England, the Patriots head into the rematch with no distractions after an offseason full of them. Christian Gonzalez has his new deal, and while there are questions about the availability of TreVeyon Henderson, Drake Maye will have plenty of new weapons to work with. Here is a final projection on how the Pats season may play out, with the help of our friend Grok.

Regular season simulation

Week 1 — Wed, Sept. 9 @ Seahawks (Lumen Field)
Seahawks 24, Patriots 20
Banner night in Seattle. Maye throws for 278 yards and two scores to Brown, but a late pick and a missed 51-yarder by Andy Borregales keep New England from stealing the rematch. Henderson sits. 0-1.

Week 2 — Sun, Sept. 20 vs Steelers
Patriots 27, Steelers 17
Home opener. Maye is efficient, Stevenson pounds it, Gonzalez blanks the Pittsburgh deep shots. 1-1.

Week 3 — Sun, Sept. 27 @ Jaguars
Patriots 31, Jaguars 24
Maye outduels Trevor Lawrence. Doubs’ first big game as a Patriot (8-112-1). 2-1.

Week 4 — Sun, Oct. 4 @ Bills (new Highmark Stadium)
Bills 30, Patriots 23
Allen and James Cook control the line of scrimmage. Maye keeps it close with a late TD to Hunter Henry, but Buffalo wins the first of two. 2-2.

Week 5 — Sun, Oct. 11 vs Raiders
Patriots 28, Raiders 13
Get-right game. Brown (7-98-2) and a healthy-enough Henderson take over. Landry’s return window opens. 3-2.

Week 6 — Sun, Oct. 18 vs Jets
Patriots 24, Jets 16
Defense bends but doesn’t break. DeMario Douglas and the slot game feast on New York’s secondary. 4-2.

Week 7 — Thu, Oct. 22 @ Bears (TNF)
Bears 27, Patriots 21
Soldier Field short week. Chicago’s front wins the trenches; Maye is hurried into two sacks that kill drives. 4-3.

Week 8 — Sun, Nov. 1 @ Dolphins
Patriots 34, Dolphins 20
Maye’s best game of the first half: 312 yards, 3 TD. Miami’s rebuild shows. 5-3.

Week 9 — Sun, Nov. 8 vs Packers
Packers 26, Patriots 23
Green Bay’s offense still has enough. A late Gonzalez pick is wasted when the offense stalls at the 8. 5-4.

Week 10 — Sun, Nov. 15 vs Lions (Munich, Allianz Arena, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Patriots 28, Lions 24
International win. Maye finds Brown on a 42-yard seam in the fourth. Lions are designated home team; Patriots steal it anyway. 6-4.

Week 11 — BYE

Week 12 — Sun, Nov. 29 @ Chargers (SNF)
Chargers 31, Patriots 17
Justin Herbert night. New England’s pass rush still isn’t consistent enough without a fully healthy Landry rotation. 6-5.

Week 13 — Sun, Dec. 6 vs Bills
Patriots 27, Bills 24
The season-defining game. Maye answers Allen. Brown’s contested catch on 3rd-and-8 sets up the winning field goal. Division lead. 7-5.

Week 14 — Thu, Dec. 10 vs Vikings (TNF)
Patriots 21, Vikings 16
Ugly, physical, Vrabel football. Stevenson 112 yards. Secondary (Gonzalez + Carlton Davis + Kevin Byard) wins it. 8-5.

Week 15 — Mon, Dec. 21 @ Chiefs (MNF)
Chiefs 29, Patriots 22
Patrick Mahomes reminder. Kansas City’s two-minute drill is still the standard. Maye 289 yards but two late incompletions. 8-6.

Week 16 — Sun, Dec. 27 @ Jets
Patriots 20, Jets 13
Grind-it-out road win to stay ahead of Buffalo. 9-6.

Week 17 — vs Broncos
Patriots 24, Broncos 21
Bo Nix keeps it tight; Maye’s 4th-quarter TD to Doubs seals a playoff-clinching win. 10-6.

Week 18 — vs Dolphins
Patriots 31, Dolphins 10
Rest some starters late. Division title locked when Buffalo drops its finale. 11-6.

Final record: 11-6
AFC East champions (Bills 10-7). No. 3 seed in the AFC.

The 9.5/10.5 win total is cleared. The “they’ll regress hard” take is only half right — they drop three wins from 2025, which is expected given the schedule, but Maye and the Brown-Doubs addition keep them a playoff team.

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Playoffs

Wild Card — vs Texans
Patriots 27, Texans 23
Maye 2 TD, 1 INT. Gonzalez’s late PBU on C.J. Stroud saves the season.

Divisional — @ Bills
Bills 28, Patriots 24
Revenge in Buffalo. Allen’s 12-yard scramble on 4th-and-2 in the fourth is the dagger. New England’s season ends one step short of another AFC Championship.

What the tape would show

• Drake Maye: ~4,250–4,400 yards, 29–32 TD, 10–12 INT. Not quite the 2025 efficiency spike, but still a top-5 QB with a better supporting cast. Pro Bowl lock, fringe MVP conversation again.
• A.J. Brown: 1,100+ yards, 9–11 TD. The missing piece.
• Romeo Doubs: Solid 750–850 yard complement.
• Rhamondre Stevenson / TreVeyon Henderson: Combined 1,600–1,700 rushing yards once Henderson returns.
• Defense: Top-10 scoring defense most weeks, but the pass rush remains the limiter in December/January. Gonzalez is a first-team All-Pro candidate after the extension.

Bottom line

This is a 10- to 12-win roster that should make the playoffs and can beat anyone on a given Sunday. It is not a 14-3 roster again, and the AFC (Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos) is too deep for a comfortable path. Vrabel’s Year 2 team wins the East, wins a playoff game, and loses a classic to Allen. That is a successful season after last February. It is also not a Super Bowl favorite until the edge rush and depth catch up.

Wednesday night in Seattle is the first test. The rematch does not have to be revenge to prove the Patriots belong. They already do. The question is whether Maye’s third year is the one that finally gets them the last game. This simulation says they get close — again.