The NFL trade deadline is set for Tuesday, and Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry has become one of the most talked-about names on the market.

Sources told A to Z Sports on Thursday that the New England Patriots and New York Giants are both interested in the veteran running back. That news came before the Ravens dropped their fourth straight game, a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in a rainy Baltimore.

On the latest episode of 13 Personnel, Austin Stanley, Joe DeLeone, and I used the A to Z Sports NFL Trade Simulator to work through the final weekend before the deadline. We started with Henry. One thing is very clear: if Baltimore decides to hit the reset button, the price for Henry is far lower than the price for the other big names at the position.

What a Derrick Henry trade could look like

In the simulator, Henry carries a trade value of 505 points. We had talked about his value landing somewhere between a late second-round pick and an early-to-mid third-round pick. That range held up.

Here is the deal I put together:

– Patriots receive: RB Derrick Henry – Ravens receive: 2027 third-round pick, 2028 sixth-round pick (via Miami)

The Patriots currently hold the 85th pick overall in the 2027 class. That pick would likely slide later if New England achieves its goals this season. The sixth-round pick from the Dolphins should be an earlier selection in that round.

The deal slightly favors the Ravens. That shouldn’t be a surprise. Whether it is general manager Eric DeCosta or, previously, Ozzie Newsome, Baltimore has a long track record of getting value in trades and squeezing out extra draft capital. I am comfortable giving the Ravens a slight edge here. In return, Henry heads north to reunite with Patriots coach Mike Vrabel.

The contract also makes this easy to stomach, since Henry’s base salary is just $1.25 million, meaning a team would be paying roughly half of that this year, followed by a non-guaranteed $12 million in 2027. That gives a buyer a playoff piece now and a reasonable option for next season.

Why the Patriots make the most sense

Austin and I have both believed for a while that New England is the most likely fit. The Patriots’ roster is full of familiar faces from Henry’s Tennessee days, including Vrabel, wide receiver A.J. Brown, safety Kevin Byard, and edge rusher Harold Landry.

The need at running back also became more pressing this week. Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson said in a statement Friday morning that he was hospitalized with an “unusual medical emergency involving a series of unexplained neurological symptoms.” The scary news makes the fit for a proven back even clearer.

There were also signs of frustration from Henry in the Ravens’ locker room after the loss to Jacksonville. If you ask me, the combination of the Patriots’ need, Vrabel’s history with Henry, and Baltimore’s slide makes this a logical match for both sides.

Where the Giants fit in the Henry sweepstakes

Austin and I aren’t buying the Giants as a serious player, but Joe is. He pointed to multiple reports that New York has been aggressive ahead of the deadline.

Outside of defensive tackle, running back is the Giants’ biggest need. They are banged up at the position, and Joe argued they lack the type of playmaker head coach John Harbaugh wants for a run-heavy, win-in-the-trenches offense.

Cam Skattebo has been fine, but he is dealing with a hamstring issue and has had some ups and downs with fumbles.

The problem is draft capital. New York doesn’t have a ton of it, and spending more on a running back doesn’t line up with building a young roster for the next few years. Joe expects the Giants to get priced out of the Jonathan Taylor market. If that happens, Henry would be the significantly cheaper fallback.

Joe also made a strong point about the broader running back market. The gap in trade value between Jonathan Taylor and Henry is massive, and so is the gap in contracts. The six-year age difference explains why Taylor costs so much more, but Henry is still producing. Giving up a third- and a sixth-round pick for a back who can grind out the tough yards in any game is a pretty good move.

For now, New England looks like the clear winner in this exercise. We will see if the Patriots, or anyone else, completes a deal before Tuesday.