Malachi Toney being out for the rest of the regular season is an absolute heartbreaker for the Miami Hurricanes. The Miami wide receiver was set to headline the biggest game on the Hurricanes’ schedule, and now Miami heads to Notre Dame without its best player and more than a touchdown underdog.

I was very much excited to see what Toney was going to do against Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore. That’s a future NFL matchup, and it’s the type of one-on-one battle you circle on the calendar months in advance. Throw in the fact that this was shaping up to be a heavyweight fight between two national title contenders, and losing Toney stings even more.

I wouldn’t put an asterisk on this game. People will. If Miami loses, you’re going to hear “if we had Malachi Toney, this game changes” from every corner of the fanbase, and there’s a real case for it.

The playoff committee should give Miami some grace going into South Bend without Malachi Toney

A lot of the narrative around this Miami offense has been that quarterback Darian Mensah wouldn’t be the same without Toney. And I get it. I understand why people feel that way, because Toney has been the engine of everything this offense does.

But look past the Notre Dame game itself. If Miami loses this one, the path to the College Football Playoff gets narrower. The Hurricanes would have to win the ACC, something the program has never done. Fine. Understood. That’s a tall order.

And you may say, Tegan, that sounds like an excuse. Well, it’s context, and the committee lives on context. I think the College Football Playoff Committee is going to give Miami a little more grace than people expect because it understands what this team was asked to do: go on the road to South Bend and face Notre Dame without its best player. That isn’t the same as dropping a home game to an unranked opponent with a full roster. A loss under these circumstances shouldn’t be weighed like a loss with Toney on the field.

Shannon Dawson’s audition starts now

Now, schematically, this is the part I’m most locked in on. Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson has to figure out how to replace a player who is basically the team’s entire offensive identity. You don’t just plug in the next man up when that’s the case. You have to rethink how you attack a defense.

And that’s what makes this such a big moment for Dawson. If this offense keeps humming without Toney in the fold, it could be what gets him a Power 4 head coaching job. Picture Mensah, Cooper Barkate, and Mark Fletcher Jr. operating at 90 percent of what this offense looked like with Toney. That alone would be one of the more impressive coaching jobs of the season, and it could double or triple Dawson’s salary the moment he takes over a program of his own.

On the flip side, if the offense stalls, the narrative writes itself. Everyone who said Mensah was a product of Toney will feel vindicated, and Dawson won’t get much credit for anything he built before this injury.

Why Miami is still a dangerous threat

Here’s the scary part for everyone else. Toney is expected back for the College Football Playoff, with the injury described as one that only costs him the regular season. So if Miami finds a way to survive this stretch, and Dawson discovers some new wrinkles along the way, you get a Hurricanes offense in the postseason that has learned to win without its star and then gets him back. That’s a nightmare for whoever draws Miami.

To be clear, I’m not out on Miami as a national title contender. Not even close. I think this roster is talented enough to stay in the conversation, and I think the committee will judge the Notre Dame result fairly whichever way it goes.

With that being said, losing your best player right before the biggest regular season game on the schedule still sucks. Miami’s ceiling didn’t change with this injury. What changed is how much Dawson and Mensah have to prove over the next several weeks to make sure the Hurricanes are still standing when Toney returns.