Notre Dame football has spent decades chasing a national championship that hasn’t arrived since the 1988 season. Another drought hangs over the program, and it’s even older.

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr has a legitimate shot at ending it by winning the Heisman Trophy.

The Fighting Irish are 8-1 and sit at No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings, with three winnable games left on the regular-season schedule. If Notre Dame catches fire and peaks at the right time, the title drought could finally end. Carr could also hoist one of the most iconic awards in any sport along the way.

The odds back that up. Kalshi gives Carr a 92 percent chance to make the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York. He also has the third-best odds to win the award at 16 percent. Only two players rank higher: Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (33 percent) and Miami quarterback Darian Mensah.

CJ Carr’s Heisman resume

Through nine games, Carr has thrown 21 touchdown passes and only one interception while completing over 67 percent of his passes. He has also added three more scores on the ground.

Branding plays a big role in the Heisman race. Carr is the starting quarterback at Notre Dame, and he’s the starting quarterback for a top-5 team in college football. Neither hurts his chances.

He also just had arguably the best game of his college career. Carr completed 29-of-41 passes for 319 yards and three touchdown passes in a 31-24 win over the No. 1 team in the country, Miami. That looks a lot like a Heisman moment.

Notre Dame’s Heisman drought runs deep

Notre Dame has produced seven Heisman Trophy winners. The last was Tim Brown, the college football and NFL Hall of Famer, in the 1987 season. Four of those seven winners were quarterbacks, including “Golden Boy” Paul Hornung, but the Irish haven’t had a quarterback win the award since 1964.

That means no Heisman winner in nearly four decades and no Heisman-winning quarterback in over 60 years. Notre Dame has a chance to change history with a championship, and Carr has a chance to end a streak of his own.

Everyone can picture the trophy and the pose. Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, Herschel Walker, Reggie Bush, and Fernando Mendoza more recently all won it. That honor carries enormous value for the player and the program. Indiana just put a Heisman Trophy and a national title in the same trophy case.

Plenty of Notre Dame fans will say they don’t care about the Heisman and only want a national championship. I’m with them. If I could only pick one, I’m taking the title 10 out of 10 times. Still, it’s pretty cool that Notre Dame has a real chance to make a deep playoff run while also sending a player to New York.

Why Carr can close the gap

Smith is the betting favorite. Few would argue against him as the best player in college football, and he already has over 1,200 receiving yards. However, the Buckeyes are only ranked 20th in the country. Ohio State also suffered an injury at quarterback a couple of weeks ago, and Luke Fahey is now under center. Smith’s production could conceivably tail off.

Here’s the thing about the Heisman: it doesn’t automatically go to the best overall player. It usually goes to the best player on one of the best teams, someone who has a signature moment that propels him to the top. Carr has one. I’m not sure what Smith’s Heisman moment would be at this point, and I don’t think he gets one.

Mensah’s case raises a different question. His potential Heisman moment came in South Bend against Notre Dame, and Carr outplayed him that day. Miami will likely win the rest of its regular-season games and probably face Wake Forest in the ACC Championship Game. Where does Mensah’s Heisman moment come from here?

We always talk about head-to-head results when it comes to playoff seeding, and the same logic applies here. Carr and Mensah are the two highest-ranked quarterbacks in the race. Voters have to ask who won when their teams met, who looked better, who protected the football, and who made the biggest plays in the biggest moments.

The answer is Carr.

Does CJ Carr have a real shot?

I wouldn’t necessarily bet on Carr winning the Heisman Trophy. I do think his chances are much better than most people believe.

Production, team success, prestige, and a Heisman moment all go into the recipe for winning the award. Carr checks every box right now. The predictive markets and sportsbooks ranking him this high reflect exactly that.

There’s a lot of intrigue around how the final weeks play out, starting with Boston College. Will Carr win it? We’ll have to wait and see, but he’s got a shot.