Notre Dame football got its latest look at the College Football Playoff picture when the CFP rankings dropped on Nov. 10. With three regular-season games remaining, the Fighting Irish are in a strong position to finish the year on a high note and make a push up the board, sitting at No. 5.

Austin Stanley, Travis May, and I broke down the newest CFP rankings on our reaction show, and Notre Dame’s path to the finish line was a big part of the conversation. The schedule sets up nicely for head coach Marcus Freeman and the Irish. The bigger question is how much winning out will help them.

Notre Dame’s remaining schedule

The win probability projections we looked at paint a favorable picture. Notre Dame has a 98% chance to beat Boston College, a 90% chance to beat SMU, and a 94% chance to close the regular season with a win over Syracuse.

Those numbers make it pretty likely that the Irish run the table. SMU stands out as the toughest test of the three on paper, but even that game projects as a comfortable favorite for Notre Dame.

If you ask me, the focus now has to be on handling business one week at a time. Stacking three more wins would give the selection committee no reason to push the Irish down. Three more wins would also give them a chance to move up as other contenders around them trip up.

The BYU loss still hangs over the Irish

Everything about Notre Dame’s resume comes back to one game. The loss at BYU in Provo a few weeks back remains the lone blemish, and it is a tough one to swallow given how it ended.

Notre Dame has a situation similar to what Tennessee Volunteers dealt with on a fourth-and-1. In the Irish’s case, the ending came down to the clock. Had there been one second left, quarterback CJ Carr would have gotten another shot at the end zone. Instead, the game ended without that final opportunity.

That is the kind of moment that sticks with a fan base, and it is the kind of result that shows up on a resume all season long. The committee does not hand out credit for what could have happened with one more snap. The Irish have to live with the loss on their record and keep winning to make up ground.

How high can Notre Dame climb?

This was the question Austin threw my way at the end of our Notre Dame segment, and it is the one Irish fans are asking most. The answer depends on more than just Notre Dame taking care of Boston College, SMU, and Syracuse.

Winning out is the most important piece. A one-loss Notre Dame team with a strong finish should be in a good spot when the final rankings come around.

Where exactly they land will depend on how the teams ahead of them finish, and on how the committee weighs that BYU loss against the rest of the resume.

There’s a real path for the Irish to keep climbing over the next few weeks. The first step comes against Boston College, and we will know more about where Notre Dame stands when the committee releases its next set of CFP rankings. Just how far they can rise is a major discussion point right now, especially with the desire for a first-round bye inside the top-four.