Indiana is going to remind people who the defending national champions are this weekend. I get the hype around this one. Nebraska is a fun team with a big opportunity to shock the world at home.

Still, Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers have walked into these upset-bid environments before, and every time they’ve looked like the better football team.

Here’s the context people are skipping over. Nebraska has not won a game against a top-25 opponent since 2016. The Cornhuskers haven’t beaten a top-10 team since 2015. That’s a long drought. A hostile crowd and a lot of buzz don’t erase it on their own.

The Nebraska rushing attack is the whole question

If you’re a Hoosiers fan, the No. 1 thing you should be watching out for is simple. How real is this Nebraska rushing attack?

Quarterback Anthony Colandrea is dynamic, and Nebraska has been one of the more prolific rushing teams in the entire country. Now, to be clear, the Huskers haven’t exactly run through a gauntlet of elite run defenses to get those numbers. That changes this week. Indiana brings a top-5 rushing defense into Lincoln, and that’s a different animal.

So Indiana has to find out quickly whether it can take away the best thing about this Nebraska offense. If the Hoosiers shut down the run early, Nebraska suddenly has to win a game it hasn’t been built to win.

The Turbo Richard and the Josh Hoover question

On the flip side, Indiana needs running back Turbo Richard. Having him in the backfield is critical to this offense, because he takes responsibility off quarterback Josh Hoover’s plate.

I’m optimistic about what Hoover can be. But I need to see how dynamic he is on the road. When he was at TCU, we saw the worst version of him. That’s a fair concern, and I’m not going to pretend it isn’t. With that being said, this Indiana system has proven it can elevate the quarterback position.

The pieces around Hoover are good enough to get the best version of him yet. Even so, the Hoosiers can’t put the whole game on his shoulders in that environment. Getting the run game going with Richard is going to be imperative for Indiana to win this game.

How I ultimately see this game playing out

You’re absolutely going to get an inspired effort from Nebraska on Saturday. The crowd will be loud, the Huskers will come out swinging, and I wouldn’t even be shocked if Indiana doesn’t have the lead going into the second half.

But that’s where the gap shows up. Indiana has the coaching advantage. The Hoosiers have talent on the outside that can beat you through the air and on the ground. And then there’s that defense, which has been the best defense in college football for two seasons now.

Nebraska has gone a decade without a signature win over a ranked opponent, and it’s running into a champion that doesn’t panic on the road. Indiana gets the job done.