The NCAA transfer portal has reshaped college football roster building since its launch in Oct. 2018, and no position has felt the impact more than quarterback. Two consecutive national championships won by first-year transfer quarterbacks have sparked a fascinating debate about whether this is a sustainable trend or a coincidence.

Will Howard led Ohio State to a title after the 2024 season, and Fernando Mendoza did the same with Indiana following the 2025 campaign. Now, heading into the 2026 season, the pool of first-year transfer quarterbacks capable of replicating that feat is thin.

Before Howard and Mendoza rewrote the formula, the path to a national championship at quarterback looked different. Joe Burrow transferred from Ohio State to LSU but spent the 2018 season getting acclimated before leading the Tigers to the 2019 title. Mac Jones was a homegrown Alabama quarterback when he won it all in 2020. Stetson Bennett’s journey from Georgia walk-on to junior college to Georgia again made him a Bulldog legend by the time he led back-to-back championship teams in 2021 and 2022. JJ McCarthy was a prized high school recruit who developed within Michigan’s program before delivering a title in 2023.

The early results painted a clear picture: either recruit your quarterback out of high school or give a transfer multiple years to settle in. The last two seasons proved there are other ways to win.

The 3 first-year transfers who could keep the trend alive

If the trend continues in 2026, the candidate list is short. Three quarterbacks stand out as realistic options.

Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is the most likely candidate. Previously at Tulane and Duke, Mensah arrives in Coral Gables with sky-high expectations after a prolific season with the Blue Devils. Miami was the national runner-up a season ago, falling to Indiana in the title game. The Hurricanes return a talented roster, and Mensah steps into an offense that was already one of the most explosive in the country.

Indiana’s replacement for Mendoza is former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover. Hoover has the reputation of a gunslinger, and that cuts both ways. He has produced a high number of turnover-worthy plays throughout his career, but his ceiling is tantalizing. When Hoover is at his best, the big plays come in bunches. Whether head coach Curt Cignetti can channel that talent into consistency will determine how far the Hoosiers can go in defense of their title.

LSU welcomed former Arizona State and Michigan State quarterback Sam Leavitt this offseason. The 247 Sports Composite ranked Leavitt as the top transfer portal quarterback available. It is hard to envision the Tigers making a championship run in head coach Lane Kiffin’s first year in Baton Rouge, but Leavitt’s talent makes him someone worth watching closely, at least.

Beyond the top 3, options dry up quickly

Outside of that trio, the cupboard is bare for first-year transfers on legitimate title contenders. Oregon landed former Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola, but he will serve as a backup to Dante Moore in 2026. Drew Mestemaker at Oklahoma State and DJ Lagway with the Baylor Bears are intriguing individual talents, but neither program looks like a national title contender right now, or ever.

The realistic conversation begins and ends with Mensah, Hoover, and Leavitt. Whether one of them can pull it off, or whether a homegrown starter reclaims the throne, will be one of the more compelling storylines of the 2026 college football season.