Notre Dame doesn’t need any additional motivation heading into Saturday’s matchup with Miami. The history between these programs, last year’s heartbreaking finish, and the opportunity to knock off the No. 1 team in the country provide plenty of reasons for the Fighting Irish to be ready.

But there is another reason to pay close attention to this matchup: the advanced numbers suggest Notre Dame is better equipped to compete with Miami than some might expect.

The Hurricanes enter November 7 undefeated at 8-0 and ranked No. 1 nationally. They have one of the most explosive offenses in college football, led by quarterback Darian Mensah, and have consistently found ways to put points on the scoreboard.

Notre Dame is 7-1 and coming off a 35-13 victory over Navy. The Irish have been particularly impressive defensively this season, ranking among the nation’s best in several important categories, including defensive efficiency, rushing yards allowed, and explosive plays surrendered.

The interesting part is that these teams have very different strengths.

Miami has the advantage in offensive explosiveness and passing efficiency. Notre Dame has been more consistent defensively, does a better job preventing big plays, and has one of the best offensive lines in the country when it comes to protecting its quarterback.

For Marcus Freeman, the challenge is figuring out how to take advantage of those differences.

Here is a closer look at the advanced numbers that could determine whether Notre Dame can hand Miami its first loss of the 2026 season.

Statistics and national rankings are based on data available through October 31, 2026. EPA, success rate, and explosiveness figures are from HoopVantage’s matchup database. Rankings are among 138 FBS teams. Different statistical providers use different methodologies, so rankings should not be mixed across databases.

1. Overall offensive efficiency: Miami has the edge, but Notre Dame isn’t far behind

One of the best ways to evaluate an offense is through expected points added per play, commonly referred to as EPA.

EPA measures how much a particular play changes a team’s expected scoring output based on the down, distance, and field position. It provides a better picture of offensive efficiency than simply looking at total yards or points scored.

Miami enters the game ranked second nationally in offensive EPA per play at +0.31. Notre Dame ranks 13th at +0.22.

Offensive metric	Miami	Notre Dame
EPA per play	+0.31 (#2)	+0.22 (#13)
Success rate	53.1% (#2)	50.9% (#6)
Yards per play	7.83 (#2)	6.54 (#32)
Points per game	47.6 (#1)	41.1 (#5)
Explosive play rate	16.4% (#8)	11.3% (#104)

The biggest difference is explosiveness.

Miami ranks eighth nationally in explosive-play rate, while Notre Dame ranks 104th. The Hurricanes have demonstrated an ability to turn relatively ordinary offensive possessions into scoring opportunities with one big play.

That doesn’t mean Notre Dame has struggled offensively. In fact, the Irish rank sixth nationally in success rate, which measures how frequently an offense gains enough yards to stay on schedule.

Notre Dame is successful on approximately 50.9% of its offensive plays. Miami is at 53.1%. The difference is that Miami combines consistency with explosive production. Notre Dame has been more dependent on sustaining drives rather than consistently creating chunk plays.

The advantage: Miami.

The Hurricanes have the more productive and explosive offense. Notre Dame is still one of the country’s most efficient teams, but it will have to find ways to generate more explosive plays against Miami if it wants to keep pace.

2. Miami’s passing offense vs. Notre Dame’s passing defense

This is the biggest matchup of the game. If there is one area that should concern Notre Dame fans, it is Miami’s passing attack.

The Hurricanes rank first nationally in passing EPA per play at +0.50. Notre Dame ranks seventh offensively in that same category at +0.36.

Miami’s passing production has been particularly impressive because of the efficiency with which it generates positive plays.

Darian Mensah has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in college football. According to the matchup data, he ranks second among 152 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback at +0.66.

He also has two dangerous receiving options in Malachi Toney and Cooper Barkate.

Passing metric	Miami	Notre Dame
Passing EPA per play	+0.50 (#1)	+0.36 (#7)
Passing success rate	59.2% (#1)	50.8% (#15)
Passing EPA allowed	+0.11 (#90)	-0.12 (#18)
Net passing yards per game	326.7 (#5)	261.3 (#33)
Net passing yards allowed/game	227.9 (#101)	170.4 (#18)

The most important number might actually be Notre Dame’s passing defense.

The Irish rank 18th nationally in passing EPA allowed, while Miami ranks 90th in that category defensively.

That gives Notre Dame a potentially significant advantage when it has the football, but it also highlights the challenge facing the Irish defense.

Miami has been outstanding throwing the football. Notre Dame has been good at preventing opponents from doing the same. The Hurricanes have also averaged 326.7 net passing yards per game, compared to Notre Dame’s 170.4 passing yards allowed per game.

Notre Dame cannot simply sit back and hope Mensah makes mistakes. The Irish need to create pressure, disrupt his timing, and make him uncomfortable in the pocket.

If Mensah gets time to throw, Miami has enough talent at receiver to create problems for almost any secondary.

The advantage: Miami’s passing offense.

Mensah and the Hurricanes’ receiving corps represent the most difficult challenge Notre Dame’s defense will face this season. However, the Irish have been much better against the pass than Miami’s overall defensive numbers suggest, giving Freeman a reason to believe his defense can compete.

3. Notre Dame’s defense against explosive plays could be a game-changer

This is where Notre Dame has a legitimate opportunity to frustrate Miami.

The Hurricanes rank eighth nationally in explosive-play rate, producing explosive plays on 16.4% of their offensive snaps. Notre Dame ranks first nationally in explosive plays allowed, surrendering them on just 6.6% of opponent snaps.

That’s a remarkable difference.

Explosive-play metric	Miami	Notre Dame
Offensive explosive-play rate	16.4% (#8)	11.3% (#104)
Explosive plays allowed	11.0% (#51)	6.6% (#1)

This might be the most important statistical advantage Notre Dame has entering the game. Miami wants to create explosive plays. Notre Dame has made a living preventing them.

The Irish have allowed explosive plays on just 6.6% of opponent snaps. That means opposing offenses have had a difficult time generating the kind of plays that completely change a game.

It’s particularly important against a team like Miami.

The Hurricanes can score quickly, and their offense doesn’t need to put together 12-play drives to reach the end zone. A missed assignment, a blown coverage, or a missed tackle can quickly turn into a touchdown.

Notre Dame has to make Miami earn everything.

That means tackling well in space, limiting yards after the catch, and making sure the secondary doesn’t surrender opportunities over the top.

If the Irish can force Miami to put together longer drives, it gives the defense more opportunities to create negative plays and potentially force turnovers.

The advantage: Notre Dame.

This is a legitimate strength for Freeman’s defense. Miami is one of the most explosive offenses in the country, but Notre Dame is arguably the best team in the country at preventing explosive plays.

4. The rushing matchup: Miami’s defense presents a difficult challenge for Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s ability to establish the running game will be critical.

The Irish rank 64th nationally in rushing EPA per play at +0.09, while Miami ranks 48th at +0.12 offensively.

Neither team has been nearly as efficient running the football as it has been throwing it. However, Miami’s rushing defense is where things get interesting.

The Hurricanes rank first nationally in rushing EPA allowed at -0.24 per play.

Notre Dame’s rushing defense ranks 25th at -0.06.

Rushing metric	Miami	Notre Dame
Rushing EPA per play	+0.12 (#48)	+0.09 (#64)
Rushing EPA allowed	-0.24 (#1)	-0.06 (#25)
Rushing success rate	47.3% (#38)	51.0% (#10)
Rushing yards allowed/game	72.6 (#1)	82.9 (#2)

Miami has been particularly effective at taking away opposing rushing attacks.

The Hurricanes rank first nationally in rushing EPA allowed and have surrendered just 72.6 rushing yards per game.

That is a significant challenge for Notre Dame.

The Irish would love to establish their rushing attack, control the clock and prevent Miami from getting into an offensive rhythm. But the Hurricanes have demonstrated that they can make life difficult for opposing offensive lines.

There is another important number worth considering.

Miami ranks second nationally in run stuff rate at 10.5%. That means the Hurricanes are particularly good at stopping running plays at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Notre Dame’s offensive line has been excellent at protecting CJ Carr, but it will have to generate movement against a defensive front that has consistently won at the line of scrimmage.

The good news for Notre Dame is that its rushing offense has been more efficient on a success-rate basis than Miami’s.

The Irish rank 10th nationally in rushing success rate at 51%, compared to Miami’s 38th-ranked 47.3%.

The advantage: Miami’s rushing defense.

Notre Dame has a good rushing attack, but this is not a matchup where the Irish should expect to simply line up and run the football at will. The offensive line and running backs will need to win their individual matchups.

5. Third-down efficiency: Miami has a significant advantage

This is arguably the most concerning statistical category for Notre Dame heading into Saturday.

Miami ranks 10th nationally in offensive third-down conversion rate, converting 53.9% of its opportunities. Notre Dame ranks 109th nationally in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 42.9% of their opportunities.

Third-down metric	Miami	Notre Dame
Offensive conversion rate	53.9% (#10)	44.0% (#46)
Defensive conversion rate allowed	34.4% (#29)	42.9% (#109)

Miami has consistently demonstrated an ability to keep drives alive. That becomes especially dangerous when considering the talent surrounding Mensah.

The Hurricanes don’t need to hit a big play on every possession. They can move the chains, stay ahead of the sticks, and put their quarterback in favorable situations.

Notre Dame has to be better defensively on third down.

The Irish cannot afford to allow Miami to repeatedly convert third-and-medium situations. Eventually, those extended drives will turn into points.

There is a positive for Notre Dame on the other side of the football. The Irish convert 44% of their third downs, while Miami allows opponents to convert 34.4%.

Notre Dame’s offense has been reasonably efficient in those situations, but it needs to avoid getting behind the chains.

If Carr and the Irish offense can stay in manageable third-down situations, they should have opportunities to sustain drives against Miami.

The advantage: Miami.

This is a significant statistical edge for the Hurricanes. Notre Dame’s defense has to find a way to get off the field, especially when Miami crosses midfield.

6. Havoc rate: Notre Dame has an opportunity to create problems for Miami

Havoc rate measures how frequently a defense creates disruptive plays, including tackles for loss, sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, and pass breakups.

It is one of the more useful statistics when evaluating a defense because it measures the ability to create negative plays rather than simply prevent yards.

Notre Dame ranks 19th nationally in defensive havoc rate at 16.3%.

Miami ranks 109th at 12.3%.

That gives the Irish an advantage. However, there is another side to this matchup that cannot be ignored.

Miami’s offense has done an excellent job avoiding disruptive defensive plays. The Hurricanes rank third nationally in havoc allowed at just 8.4%.

Notre Dame ranks 13th at 10.2%.

Havoc metric	Miami	Notre Dame
Defensive havoc rate	12.3% (#109)	16.3% (#19)
Offensive havoc allowed	8.4% (#3)	10.2% (#13)

The Irish have an opportunity to create problems for Mensah, but it won’t be easy.

Miami’s offensive line has done an excellent job protecting its quarterback and preventing opposing defenses from creating disruptive plays.

Notre Dame will need more than simply rushing four defenders and hoping somebody gets home. The Irish have to be creative with their pressure packages, disguise coverages, and find ways to make Mensah uncomfortable.

If they can generate a few sacks, tackles for loss, or turnovers, it could change the entire complexion of the game.

The advantage: Notre Dame defensively, although Miami has done a better job protecting its offense.

This is a particularly interesting matchup because Notre Dame has been better at creating havoc, while Miami has been better at preventing it.

7. Protecting CJ Carr: Notre Dame has one of the biggest advantages in the game

One number that shouldn’t get overlooked is Notre Dame’s pass protection.

The Fighting Irish allow just 0.29 sacks per game, ranking first nationally. Miami averages 2.71 sacks per game, ranking 20th.

That is an important matchup.

Pass-rushing metric	Miami	Notre Dame
Defensive sacks per game	2.71 (#20)	2.14 (#60)
Sacks allowed per game	1.29 (#37)	0.29 (#1)

Notre Dame has done an outstanding job keeping Carr upright.

That becomes particularly important against a Miami defense that doesn’t necessarily generate havoc at an elite rate but can still create pressure through its defensive front.

If the Irish offensive line continues to perform at this level, Carr should have opportunities to find receivers downfield.

The other benefit is that Notre Dame can remain balanced offensively.

When a quarterback is consistently protected, an offense doesn’t have to abandon its running game or become predictable because of pressure.

Notre Dame needs to make Miami defend the entire field.

The advantage: Notre Dame.

The Irish have been the best team in the country at preventing sacks. That is a significant advantage against a Miami defense that needs to find ways to disrupt Carr.

8. Red-zone efficiency: Miami has the advantage finishing drives

Moving the football is one thing. Finishing drives is another.

Miami ranks 17th nationally in red-zone touchdown percentage, scoring touchdowns on 73.9% of its trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

Notre Dame ranks 43rd at 66.7%. Defensively, the difference is even more interesting.

Miami allows touchdowns on just 43.1% of opposing red-zone trips, ranking 12th nationally.

Notre Dame allows touchdowns on 66.7% of opposing red-zone opportunities, ranking 106th.

Red-zone metric	Miami	Notre Dame
Offensive touchdown rate	73.9% (#17)	66.7% (#43)
Defensive touchdown rate allowed	43.1% (#12)	66.7% (#106)
Points per scoring opportunity	5.21 (#3)	5.08 (#5)

This is a category that could have a major impact on the final score.

Notre Dame has been excellent at getting into scoring position, ranking fifth nationally in points per scoring opportunity.

But the Irish have struggled to consistently prevent opponents from scoring touchdowns once they reach the red zone.

Miami has been considerably better in both areas.

The Hurricanes have a more efficient red-zone offense and a defense that has done a better job forcing opponents to settle for field goals.

Against a team averaging 47.6 points per game, Notre Dame cannot afford to give Miami easy touchdowns.

The advantage: Miami.

This is another area where the Hurricanes have a measurable edge. Notre Dame needs to improve its red-zone defense if it wants to pull off the upset.

Where Notre Dame has the advantage

Despite Miami’s offensive production, there are several areas where the Irish have legitimate statistical advantages.

Category	Advantage
Overall defensive efficiency	Notre Dame
Explosive plays allowed	Notre Dame
Passing defense	Notre Dame
Defensive havoc rate	Notre Dame
Pass protection	Notre Dame
Offensive success rate	Notre Dame, narrowly
Miami’s passing offense	Miami
Miami’s rushing defense	Miami
Third-down offense vs. defense	Miami
Red-zone efficiency	Miami

The biggest takeaway is that Notre Dame doesn’t have to outscore Miami in a shootout to win this game.

The Irish have the defensive personnel and statistical profile to make the Hurricanes work for their points. The key is limiting explosive plays and finding a way to get off the field on third down.

If Notre Dame can accomplish those two things, it has a legitimate opportunity to control the game.

The bottom line: Notre Dame has the defense to challenge Miami, but it has to win the important situations

The numbers tell an interesting story heading into November 7.

Miami has the better offense. The Hurricanes are more explosive, more efficient throwing the football, and significantly better at converting third downs.

But Notre Dame has some impressive numbers of its own.

The Irish rank first nationally in explosive plays allowed, second in rushing yards allowed per game, and first in sacks allowed per game. They have also been more effective at creating defensive havoc and preventing opponents from consistently moving the football.

For Freeman, the formula should be relatively straightforward.

Notre Dame needs to protect CJ Carr, establish enough of a running game to keep Miami honest, and avoid giving the Hurricanes short fields.

Defensively, the Irish have to make Mensah uncomfortable. They cannot allow Miami to repeatedly convert third downs, and they cannot afford to surrender explosive plays that change the game in a matter of seconds.

There is also an important point about the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame enters this game with one loss, and a victory over the No. 1 team in the country would be a massive addition to its resume. It would give the Irish a signature win, improve their national standing, and provide significant momentum heading into the final weeks of the regular season.

A loss wouldn’t necessarily end Notre Dame’s playoff hopes, but it would leave very little room for error.

The advanced numbers suggest this is a much closer matchup than simply looking at Miami’s undefeated record and offensive production might indicate.

Notre Dame has the defensive strengths to make this uncomfortable for the Hurricanes.

Now it has to prove it on the field. The biggest key for the Irish? Make Miami drive the length of the field, win third down, and don’t let the Hurricanes turn this into an explosive-play contest.

If Notre Dame can do those three things, the Fighting Irish have a real chance to deliver one of the biggest wins of Marcus Freeman’s tenure.