Getting to know the Enemy: Vikings expert talks about how the Lions can stop Justin Jefferson

The Detroit Lions are going into the biggest game of their season this Sunday when they take on the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in their building.  We think we know who the Vikings are, but we wanted to get some more information about them, so we reached out to our Vikings beat writer Tyler Forness to […]

Mike Payton — Detroit Lions Beat Writer
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The Detroit Lions are going into the biggest game of their season this Sunday when they take on the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in their building. 

We think we know who the Vikings are, but we wanted to get some more information about them, so we reached out to our Vikings beat writer Tyler Forness to get some answers to questions that have been burning a hole in our heads. Here's what he had to say: 

How much different would the Vikings defense look if they suddenly stopped getting turnovers? What does this team look like?

"I think the turnovers aren’t luck based but rather a manifestation of the aggressive and deceptive nature the Vikings play with. Even without the turnovers, the Vikings defense has been both efficient and explosive in nature.

When you filter out garbage time and just focus on neutral situations (10-90% win probability), the Vikings defense ranks highly in the following:

EPA/play: 1st
Dropback EPA/play: 1st
Rush EPA/play: 2nd
Success rate: 1st
Dropback success rate: 1st

Rush success rate: 5th

No matter how you parse it out, this defense is elite and the best chance you have of beating them is by simply countering their aggressiveness with the right punches. That and taking the checkdowns."

How do you stop Justin Jefferson? What have team’s done in the past that has worked?

"The reality is that you can’t really stop him. He’s incredible in every possible way. There is one way that has seen some success: put an elite cornerback on him in press coverage, give him safety help consistently and generate a lot of pressure to make things harder for Sam Darnold to get the ball to the other weapons on the outside.

Usually, it’s the Vikings’ own faults that prevent Jefferson rather than being the cause of the defense."

Who is the under the radar player that Lions fans should know about?

"The Lions have the most efficient and explosive running game in the National Football League in terms of both EPA/play and success rate It’s a truly impressive unit that gives defenses fits. If you don’t know Ivan Pace Jr., you will after this game. He’s an undersized linebacker at 5-10” but is really successful at using his height to his advantage by dipping underneath offensive lineman’s reach to get stops in the running game and pressure on the quarterback. In his final season of college in 2022, Pace had 9.5 sacks with Cincinnati and while his production isn’t quite the same in the NFL, he’s just as explosive as a penetrator. Watch for Pace to slither into the backfield and get multiple tackles for loss."

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