The Carolina Panthers started training camp over the weekend, but the real fireworks will begin when they put on the pads for the first time this offseason. For Carolina, it hasn’t exactly been the start they wanted following the knee injury to pass rusher Nic Scourton, which now emphasizes production from key offseason addition Jaelan Phillips.

So before the pads come on and the Panthers’ season starts for all intents and purposes, here is an unbiased simulation, as completed by Grok, with an outlook for the Carolina Panthers in 2026.

Carolina Panthers 2026 season simulation: 8-9 record, 2nd in NFC South (miss playoffs on tiebreakers)

They defend their 2025 division title (won at 8-9 in a three-way tie) but face a tougher first-place schedule (NFC/AFC North + Denver, Seattle, Philadelphia) and some offensive line uncertainty.

Team context heading into the season

• QB: Bryce Young enters Year 4 after a career-best 2025 (~3,011 yards, 23 TDs, 63.6% completion). This is a make-or-break campaign for a long-term extension (fifth-year option already exercised through 2027). Kenny Pickett is the backup.
• Offense: Young has weapons in Tetairoa McMillan (expected bigger role, including more slot snaps), Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and others. Running game features Chuba Hubbard and a healthy-looking Jonathon Brooks. OL is a concern—Taylor Moton (illness/blood clot) and Ikem Ekwonu (knee recovery) miss early time; Monroe Freeling (1st-round OT), Rasheed Walker, and Luke Fortner (center) are key.
• Defense: Biggest offseason upgrades with Jaelan Phillips (edge) and Devin Lloyd (LB). Derrick Brown anchors the interior; the unit improved significantly in 2025 and should be solid under Ejiro Evero.
• Coach: Dave Canales (Year 3). Expectations are modest—win totals hover around 7.5; expert projections mostly land in the 6–9 win range with a tough slate.

Simulated regular-season results

Realistic mix of competitive division wins, struggles against elite teams, some close losses due to OL/Young inconsistency, and a few upsets. Final record: 8-9.

Week	Opponent	Result	Score	Notes
1	vs CHI	L	17-24	Young solid but Bears’ run game dominates; OL shaky early
2	@ ATL	W	27-20	McMillan big day; division win on the road
3	@ CLE	W	23-16	Defense forces turnovers; Brooks runs well
4	vs DET	L	20-31	Lions too physical; Young pressured heavily
5	BYE	—	—	—
6	@ PHI	L	13-28	Eagles control both lines; tough first-place matchup
7	vs TB	W	24-21	Close division win; Phillips gets key sacks
8	@ GB (Thu)	L	16-27	Lambeau night game; Packers pull away late
9	vs DEN	L	19-26	Competitive but Broncos’ defense forces mistakes
10	@ NO	W	30-17	Offense clicks; Hubbard/Brooks dominate
11	vs BAL	L	14-23	Ravens’ physicality wins; Young limited
12	@ TB (Mon)	L	21-24	Heartbreaking late loss; division race tightens
13	@ MIN	W	28-24	Upset win; McMillan and Young connect for big plays
14	vs NO	W	26-13	Another solid division win; defense stifles Saints
15	vs CIN	L	22-29	Close but Bengals’ offense edges it
16	@ PIT	W	20-17	Defensive slugfest; late field goal wins it
17	vs SEA	L	17-31	Seahawks (defending champs energy) pull away
18	vs ATL	W	23-20	Must-win division game; Young leads late drive

Division results: Strong enough against ATL/NO/TB (roughly 4-2 or better in-division) to stay competitive, but the tougher non-division slate (especially North teams + PHI/DEN/SEA) costs them. NFC South remains wide open and mediocre.

View this post on Instagram

Key season storylines from the sim

• Bryce Young: Solid but not transcendent (~3,200–3,400 yards, 22–25 TDs range). Enough to keep the job and earn extension talks, but consistency issues and pressure from a patchwork OL prevent a true leap. Make-or-break year mostly affirms he’s a mid-tier starter.
• Defense: The real bright spot. Phillips and Lloyd elevate the pass rush and run defense. They keep many games close and force enough turnovers for the offense to win a few they otherwise shouldn’t.
• Offense/OL: Early struggles with Moton/Ekwonu absences. Freeling develops, but protection remains average. McMillan emerges as a clear WR1; Brooks provides a spark in the run game when healthy.
• Standings outcome: 8-9 puts them in the mix for the NFC South title again (or a wild-card race), but they finish 2nd on tiebreakers or strength of schedule and miss the playoffs. No deep postseason run.

Outlook

This is a realistic step-sideways season: improved roster pieces and Young’s development offset by a brutal schedule and residual OL questions. Best-case (Young jumps, OL holds, defense stays elite) could push 9–10 wins and a division repeat. Worst-case (injuries + Young regression) drops them closer to 5–6. The foundation under Canales is better than the bleak 2023–24 years, but sustained winning still requires Young and the trenches to take the next step.