Carnell Tate’s breakout game may be imminent, and there’s evidence even through the Tennessee Titans’ clunky offensive start to the NFL regular season. 

It might seem crazy that the 0-3 Titans, a team that has scored a total of 37 points and only four touchdowns through the first three games of the NFL regular season, could have a receiver on the verge of a breakout. But Carnell Tate, the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft out of Ohio State, is not the problem with this offense. I think he could be part of the solution for its . . . constipation problems, for lack of a better term.

The numbers say Carnell Tate is already a focal point

Tate has 13 catches for 123 yards across three games with a long of 20 yards. He has not found the end zone yet. All four Titans touchdowns have come via the quarterback with two Cam Ward rushing scores against the Philadelphia Eagles, a garbage-time touchdown pass to Elic Ayomanor against the New York Jets in Week 1, and a fourth-quarter scoring throw from Ward to Wan’Dale Robinson in the Giants game.

But here’s the thing. The Titans have 157 offensive snaps in their first three games, and Tate has been on the field for 137 of them. He leads the team in targets with 20 and yards. He is running routes, and he is getting open. Tennessee just hasn’t had enough total volume or rhythm to translate that into production.

The touchdowns that should’ve, could’ve been

What could have been the fourth touchdown of the season belonged to Tate. On a third-and-5 from the Giants’ 7-yard line in the third quarter, Tate ran his route to perfection and stood by his lonesome in the end zone at MetLife Stadium for what should have been his first career score. Ward airmailed the football. The Titans’ young quarterback moved up in the pocket, read the defense correctly, but did not set his feet to deliver an accurate throw. It robbed Tate of his moment.

That’s actually a big reason I think his breakout is imminent. When the Titans were first-and-goal from the 8-yard line with 24 seconds left trying to win the game at MetLife, Tennessee lined up in a similar concept designed to get Tate the football in a game-winning opportunity. Ward scrambled left, away from Tate. Ayomanor was breaking open on the scramble drill, and Ward threw his first interception in 208 pass attempts to lose the game.

There was another play against the Jets where Ward bailed on a clean pocket while Tate was about to break open across the middle of the field on a play-action crosser that could have been an explosive play. The examples keep stacking up. Tate is getting open, and the connection with Ward just hasn’t clicked consistently enough yet.

The training camp breakout parallel

This feels familiar. During training camp, Tate went through a dry spell through the beginning and middle of camp after a scorching start in OTAs and minicamp. He caught zero passes in the preseason games and produced nothing in two joint practices against the San Francisco 49ers or the Seattle Seahawks. Tate was relatively silent.

Then the Chicago Bears came to town for a joint practice, and Tate was the go-to guy. He had seven catches on 12 targets with a couple of touchdowns in that session alone. The light flipped on.

I wonder if a similar day is coming during the regular season. Tate is the type of receiver you can throw the ball up to and let him win a contested catch. He had zero drops last year at Ohio State, though he already has one in his rookie season on a third-down catch against the Eagles that would have moved the chains. He got hit hard on that play, and I’m sure Tate learned that the hit doesn’t hurt as much when the football is in your arms and it’s first-and-10 for your offense.

The breakout is a matter of when, not if

Yes, he dropped the pass against the Eagles on the opening drive. Yes, Ward missed him for a touchdown against the Giants. Brian Daboll has not quite pushed the ball down the field, and Ward hasn’t either. The offense is miserably bad at sustaining any type of first-half rhythm, and the Titans have been held back when it comes to total production opportunities.

Since I’m later to this post than I wanted to be, I’ll point out and give credit to Drew Beatty and Turron Davenport for being on the same wavelength as me on Tate. He’s been open often.

“Absymal doesn’t even start to cover what the Titans offense was yesterday, but none of that blame goes towards Carnell Tate. He’s officially arrived,” Beatty posted.

“I’ll say this after watching that game, Carnell Tate was working,” Davenport posted. “Tate won on a lot of his routes and could have much better stats with slightly better play from Cam Ward. If that tandem can get on track, this offense will be all right.”

The volume is there. The opportunity is there. Tate is a focal point of this offense already. Now it’s about No. 1 throwing the football to No. 14 with success.