There’s a new MVP favorite in the NFL, and it’s San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. Purdy grabbed the top spot after leading a game-winning drive Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks, pushing the 49ers to 5-0.

He now sits at +280 on DraftKings, which puts him ahead of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen for the first time all year. For a quarterback who still gets doubted every time his name comes up in these conversations, that’s no small thing.

Purdy’s quietest game sparked the jump

Here’s what caught my attention. Purdy arguably had his worst game of the year against Seattle, and that’s the game that moved him to the top of the board.

Purdy did not play badly by any stretch of the imagination. Still, it was the first time all year that he didn’t land on my winners list in my postgame reaction. Not that my winners mean a ton, but it’s just my personal takeaways. 

Purdy finished 19-of-29 for 189 yards, two touchdown passes, and one interception. The Seahawks also sacked him three times, and those were the first three sacks he has taken all season. His passer rating came out to 92.5.

That’s still good football. It’s just not the level we’ve come to expect from Purdy through the first month of the season. Most quarterbacks would gladly take that stat line in a divisional win. For Purdy, it registers as an off day, and that tells you how high he has set the bar.

Even so, he delivered when it mattered most. He led the game-winning drive, San Francisco stayed perfect, and the betting market took notice.

Vegas is rewarding the full body of work

I think this move is about more than one Sunday against Seattle. Vegas is acknowledging the outstanding play Purdy has given the Niners from the opening week, and he has done it under tough circumstances.

Injuries have ravaged this team, especially at wide receiver. That position means a ton to Purdy because those are the guys who help him pile up his numbers and production. When your pass catchers keep changing, it would be easy for a quarterback’s game to slip.

Purdy’s hasn’t. He has made plays, made big-time throws, and led touchdown and game-winning drives regardless of who is lined up around him. That’s what separates an MVP candidate from a quarterback simply benefiting from a good roster.

The results back it up. The 49ers are one of only three undefeated teams left in the NFL, and Purdy is the biggest reason why. San Francisco has found ways to win without a full arsenal, and he keeps finding answers.

Monday night could shake things up

Now, these odds could easily change heading into Week 6. Allen and the Bills face the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, and a big performance from Allen in primetime could swing the market right back toward Buffalo. You know that’s what the NFL once, he is one of their golden boys. 

Allen has been the guy Purdy needed to catch, and he isn’t going anywhere. One loud night in a national spotlight is all it takes for the books to adjust.

Still, it’s a telling sign to see Vegas now expecting Purdy to win the award. Sportsbooks don’t move a quarterback past Allen on a whim. They looked at the full picture, the injuries, the clutch drives, and the unbeaten record, and decided Purdy deserves the top spot.

Roughly two-thirds of the season is left to play, and plenty can change between now and January. But through the first third, Brock Purdy has put himself right at the top of the MVP race, exactly where he deserves to be. If he keeps leading this banged-up roster to wins, I expect him to stay there.