The Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Knoxville to face the Tennessee Volunteers, and my Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction comes down to one thing. I don’t trust the Tennessee offense to hold up its end of the bargain against a defense like Alabama’s.

Before the pick, one thing needs to be said. This matchup puts two primary color jerseys on the same field, crimson against orange, and that’s fantastic. College football is at its best when a rivalry looks this good on a Saturday afternoon.

But, as for the game itself, the real question I have going into this game is: Can Tennessee’s defense carry the Volunteers through the Third Saturday in October?

The Oklahoma blueprint only goes so far

Now, I get it. We just watched Oklahoma find a way to win a rivalry game, and a lot of people are going to point to that game as Tennessee’s path to victory over Alabama. You may say, Tegan, if Oklahoma can do it, why can’t the Vols?

Say what you want about this Tennessee team, but the defense is phenomenal. I believe the Volunteers hang around for a half, maybe even three quarters. Tennessee, I’m not doubting your defense. But I would be shocked if this game is competitive going into the fourth quarter. I have no trust in the Tennessee offensive line. That’s the problem.

I think Alabama wins with its defense over and over again in this matchup. Sure, the Tennessee offense will get chances, because I think Alabama takes a while to get settled in on offense. Even then, it won’t matter.

Think back to that Oklahoma-Texas rivalry game. I watched the air leave the building because the offense could not get anything going against Texas. Nobody trusted that offense to put up enough points, and a 10-point lead felt like 20.

I think Tennessee runs into a very similar script against Alabama. When a fan base can’t trust its offense to answer, every score from the other side feels twice as heavy. Once the Crimson Tide get a two-score cushion in the second half, Neyland Stadium is going to feel it and let the team know.

Alabama is simply the better team

You can also throw in that Alabama is undefeated after a loss under coach Kalen DeBoer, if that sort of trend matters to you. It doesn’t really matter to me. I’m not picking the Crimson Tide because of a trend.

I’m picking Alabama because it’s the better team, even on the road in one of the toughest environments in the sport. Knoxville will be loud, Tennessee will throw some early punches, and the Vols’ defense will make life difficult for a while.

This could be a close game for all I care. A close first half doesn’t change where I land. The difference between these two teams shows up on the line of scrimmage when the Tennessee offense has to move the ball, and I don’t see that changing in one week.

So I’m stamping it. Alabama wins the Third Saturday in October. I would be floored if Tennessee pulls this off, and if the Vols’ offensive line proves me wrong, I’ll live with that. Until then, Alabama is my pick.