The Tennessee Vols are averaging nearly 300 rushing yards per game through the first three games of the season, but they probably aren’t going to reach that total against the Texas Longhorns’ defense on Saturday in Neyland Stadium.

Running the ball will obviously still be very important for the Vols, but Tennessee is also going to need to create some explosive plays in the pass game in order to get a win against the Longhorns.

Former LSU head coach Brian Kelly shared some thoughts on the game this week and he pointed out something interesting to watch early in this game that could forecast whether the Vols are going to have a chance to make big plays.

Kelly thinks Texas will want to play zone defense early against Tennessee — which makes sense because the Longhorns can bait a young quarterback into some bad decisions by playing zone.

But if the Vols are finding ways to exploit zone coverage, Texas may have to switch to man coverage, which is when the door would be open for Tennessee to create some explosive plays.

“From a coaching perspective, early on, if Texas is forced to play man-to-man coverage, that will be a telltale sign,” said Kelly. “Because they are really wanting to play much more of a zone look against this spread Art Briles-like offense. If you’ve got to get into a lot of man coverage, you can get yourself into some big plays. I don’t think they want to do that.”

Kelly added that he thinks it’ll be a great game, but he’s picking Texas to win because the Longhorns have the more experienced quarterback.

“Faizon Brandon, he’s a pretty good player,” said Kelly. “As a matter of fact, I think he’s going to be a spectacular quarterback, but he hasn’t been in this environment yet. Arch Manning has, and we saw how he responded in that big game against Ohio State. I just think as a head coach, when you go on the road, you think about things like my guy’s been there before, and he’s going to be there, Arch Manning, when you need him. I think it’s going to be that close, but I think the veteran quarterback wins out against the budding superstar.”

“I think Texas will end up winning this football game,” added Kelly. “I think it’ll be a great game going to the fourth quarter, and it leans on Arch Manning making the big drive late.”

This is going to be Tennessee’s toughest test of the season. Can the Vols win the line of scrimmage? Can they run the ball? Can they create big plays down the field? Can they contain the Longhorns’ explosive wide receivers? If the answer is yes to all of those questions, then maybe Tennessee leaves Neyland Stadium with a win on Saturday.