CFL Playoff Picture 2026: What’s at Stake Over the Final Five Weeks
The East Division is nearly locked in, but the West has 4 teams fighting for positioning with a loaded schedule of divisional matchups to close the season.
The CFL regular season has 5 weeks remaining, and the playoff picture could not look more different between the two divisions. The East Division is essentially set, with the Montreal Alouettes holding a 3-game lead over the Toronto Argonauts. The West Division, however, is a different story entirely. The Edmonton Elks, Saskatchewan Roughriders, B.C. Lions, Winnipeg Blue Bombers, and Calgary Stampeders are all jockeying for position, and a loaded slate of divisional games down the stretch will determine everything.
Here’s where things sit with five weeks remaining.
The East is mostly settled
Montreal is 2 wins, or a win and an Argonauts loss, from hosting the East Final and earning a first-round bye. Toronto has already clinched a home playoff game, meaning the Argonauts will face either the crossover team from the West or the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the East semifinal. However, if the Argonauts can get within a game by the final week of the regular season, they have a chance to win the East. The Alouettes beat them in Week 1, 37-30, and a win of eight or more points would give them the tiebreaker.
Hamilton, sitting at 4-10, is effectively eliminated. The Tiger-Cats would need the B.C. Lions or Blue Bombers to lose out, Calgary to win one or fewer games, and Hamilton to win each of its final four. With the quarterback situation in Hamilton being sketchy at best since the injury to Bo Levi Mitchell, that path is not realistic.
The crossover spot adds an element unique to the CFL’s 9-team structure. Last season, the Blue Bombers crossed over and lost to the Alouettes in a fantastic East semifinal. This year, multiple West teams could end up in that spot.
Edmonton and Saskatchewan could settle it in Week 21
The Elks currently lead the West by 2 games over the Roughriders. There is a real possibility that the final regular season game between the two teams in Week 21 could decide who hosts the West Final.
Their first two matchups were decided by 2 points each. On July 23rd, the Elks beat the Roughriders in Saskatchewan 36-34. The following week on August 1st, the Roughriders returned the favor 28-26. A third game would serve as the tiebreaker, and if Saskatchewan can close the gap to one game, that finale could determine who earns the Grey Cup bid out of the West.
The Roughriders are 8-5 with 5 games to go, giving them more control over their own destiny than the Elks, who have a bye next week. If the Roughriders win out, that final game will matter. However, Saskatchewan’s remaining schedule is difficult. They face the Lions, who are one game back and still competing for a home playoff spot, along with two games against the Alouettes and a matchup with the Calgary Stampeders.
B.C. Lions have climbed back into contention
The Lions are 7-6 after a brutal start to the season. They lost their first 3 games, fell to 1-5, and have since clawed their way back into the race once star quarterback Nathan Rourke got healthy. The good news for B.C. is that the season ends against the Blue Bombers, and CFL tiebreaker rules work in the Lions’ favor. Their only matchup with Winnipeg was a 35-19 win on July 30, meaning even if B.C. loses the rematch and the two teams finish tied in the standings, the Lions hold the tiebreaker unless the Blue Bombers win by at least 17 points.
The schedule between now and then is not easy. B.C. hosts the Roughriders on Friday before traveling to Toronto, and the Argonauts have been playing strong football. After that, the Lions host the Ottawa Redblacks and the Calgary Stampeders.
Winnipeg’s path is getting complicated
The Blue Bombers have had an interesting journey to this point. They host the Argonauts on Friday night, then travel to Montreal before finishing with 3 straight games against West Division opponents. Winnipeg holds a one-game lead over Calgary, and the head-to-head between those two teams is split. That upcoming matchup could be the biggest game on the Bombers’ schedule.
There are also health concerns. Quarterback Zach Collaros continues to get banged up. Running back Brady Oliveira has been dealing with an ankle injury. The Bombers are in a difficult spot. After missing the Grey Cup last year following 5 consecutive appearances, Winnipeg will need a significant step forward to extend its playoff streak.The good news for Mike O’Shea’s Blue Bombers is they have multiple games against West Division teams, which wins will drastically help their cause, but three of their five games will be outside of Winnipeg, including against the Roughriders and Lions.
Calgary is still alive
The Stampeders are 6-8 and have the longest path forward, but they are not out of it. Calgary has outscored its opponents on the season, ranking second in the league with 490 points scored while allowing 479. After beating the Redblacks in historic fashion on Saturday, highlighted by Rene Paredes hitting a 62-yard game-winning field goal as time expired, the Stampeders finish with the Redblacks, Roughriders, Blue Bombers, and Lions. If Calgary wins out, the Stampeders will hold the tiebreaker over Winnipeg and get the crossover spot at minimum, which is a win considering how rough it’s been for the Stampeders this year.
The West is going to figure itself out through divisional play down the stretch. The Roughriders alone could go from hosting the West semifinal to hosting the West Final to missing the playoffs entirely. That range of outcomes, with 5 weeks left, is what makes this the most compelling stretch of the CFL season.
Games to watch
- Toronto vs. Winnipeg: Friday, Sept. 25th
- Saskatchewan vs. BC: Friday, Sept. 25th
- Calgary vs. Saskatchewan: Friday, Oct. 2nd
- BC vs. Toronto: Saturday, Oct. 3rd
- Winnipeg vs. Montreal: Saturday, Oct. 3rd
- Calgary vs. Winnipeg: Saturday, Oct. 10th
- Saskatchewan vs. Montreal: Monday, Oct. 12th
- Winnipeg vs. Edmonton: Friday, Oct. 16th
- Montreal vs. Saskatchewan: Saturday, Oct. 17th
- BC vs. Calgary: Saturday, Oct. 17th
- Montreal vs. Toronto: Friday, Oct. 23rd
- Winnipeg vs. BC: Friday, Oct. 23rd
- Edmonton vs. Saskatchewan: Saturday, Oct. 24th
