The Dallas Cowboys just got a huge favor in the NFC East race. The New York Giants lost to the Washington Commanders on Thursday night, and suddenly the Cowboys’ Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers carries a lot more weight.

Now, I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up. This is still a flawed Cowboys team with plenty to prove. And thinking Dallas can take down the 7-1 49ers is already optimistic.

So consider this your disclaimer: This is not a prediction. It’s a look at just how big the stage is for the Cowboys this weekend.

How the Giants’ loss shook up the NFC East

Entering the week, the Giants had a 60% chance to win the NFC East, according to the A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor. The Cowboys sat second at 32%.

Then Washington went into New York and pulled off the upset.

With that win, the Commanders entered the division picture with a 14% chance to take the NFC East. The more relevant number for Dallas, though, is the tie at the top. The Cowboys and Giants are now even at 42% apiece, and that’s before Dallas even takes the field this weekend.

For the Cowboys, that’s a jump from 32%. They didn’t play a snap and still gained 10 percentage points.

What a Cowboys win (or loss) against the 49ers would mean

Let’s say the Cowboys pull off the upset against San Francisco. In that scenario, Dallas would take a dominant stance in the NFC East at 58% to win the division.

That is a massive jump from where the Cowboys started the week.

However, a loss is the expected outcome based on both the consensus and market projections. If that happens, the Cowboys would land right around where they started the week, at 33%. The bigger shift would come elsewhere: the Giants would drop to 48%, and the Commanders would climb to 17%. That would make this more of a three-team race.

A loss leaves Dallas more or less in the same spot it was in before Week 10. A win, on the other hand, would be enormous. The Cowboys would suddenly be the favorites to win the division again, and they’d be doing it at 5-5.

The Giants are far from a sure thing

What Thursday night really felt like was a reminder. The Giants are far from a perfect team, and there’s no guarantee they keep winning.

Giants QB J.J. McCarthy made two turnover-worthy throws toward the end of the game. One was a dropped interception. The other one, the Commanders capitalized on.

There’s still a lot of season left in this division. And let’s be honest about what kind of division this is. The NFC East is nowhere near the level of the NFC North or the NFC West. If anything, it’s closer to the NFC South, with the difference being the Giants own a winning record.

For now, the NFC East race looks a lot more compelling after Thursday’s surprise result. Dallas doesn’t need to win this weekend to stay alive in the division, but a win would change the entire picture.

If anything, the pressure is a little higher for the Cowboys heading into the San Francisco game.