The Dallas Cowboys don’t play football Thursday night. That doesn’t mean they get to sit this one out.

The Washington Commanders visit the New York Giants with real NFC East stakes on the line, and Cowboys fans should be paying very close attention. To figure out how much this game matters for Dallas, I fired up the A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor.

If you haven’t tried it, you should. The simulator runs 10,000 seasons factoring in what the markets expect from every team. It also applies NFL tiebreakers to calculate each team’s odds of winning the division, making the playoffs, or even landing the No. 1 seed.

Let’s dive in.

What the simulator says about Commanders vs. Giants

As things stand, the Cowboys have a 34% chance to make the playoffs. That number could move dramatically without Dallas lifting a finger.

The Giants currently sit at 62% to win the NFC East, per our simulator. A loss to the Commanders drops those odds all the way down to 43%. In other words, New York would go from division favorite to more likely than not to come up short of the playoffs.

A win, on the other hand, pushes the Giants up to 73%. That’s a massive swing riding on one Thursday night game. Consider that if it isn’t as division champions, the Cowboys are pretty much out of the running. Four teams of the NFC North alone have a better record than them and then there’s the NFC West which features the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. 

Then you factor in the Cowboys’ own matchup with the 49ers this week.

If the Giants lose to Washington and Dallas loses to the Niners, the Cowboys’ playoff odds hold steady at 34%. The Giants, however, still slip to 49% to win the division. That’s noteworthy because it would suddenly pull the Commanders into the picture.

And if the Cowboys upset San Francisco in the same week the Commanders upset New York? Dallas would become the clear favorite to win the NFC East at 58%.

This goes beyond the math for the Giants

The numbers only tell part of the story.

If the Giants lose to the Commanders, it raises serious questions about who they really are. New York has exceeded expectations, and yet it still feels like nobody has a firm read on this team. That includes quarterback JJ McCarthy, who is set to play just his fourth game with the Giants. Whether McCarthy truly works out in New York remains an open question.

A loss Thursday would also cast doubt on the Giants’ ability to win the matchups that look winnable on paper. Their remaining schedule includes the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12, the Cleveland Browns in Week 15, the Cowboys in Week 17, and the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 18. Suddenly, none of those would look like “locks” to win. 

That’s why this feels like a measuring-stick game. If New York takes care of business in those spots, it will likely make the playoffs even if it drops games to contenders like the Jacksonville Jaguars, 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Detroit Lions, all of whom are on its schedule.

Losing to Washington would be telling.

Week 17 looms large for Dallas

Speaking of the Cowboys, here’s one more quick observation from the simulator.

Play make-believe with me for a second. If you jump ahead to Week 17 and give Dallas a win over the Giants, the Cowboys’ odds to win the NFC East climb to 44%. That alone tells you how massive that matchup with New York could be.

Of course, the Cowboys have plenty to worry about before then. Stringing together a win streak over the next few weeks would go a long way, and that will be a tough ask against the 49ers.

But if Dallas pulls it off and the Commanders win Thursday night, you could be talking about a flip of the script in the NFC East.

For now, all eyes belong on New York.