The Dallas Cowboys need a win against the Washington Commanders on Sunday, and after sitting down with the film from Washington’s Week 1 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, there are reasons to feel optimistic. 

Now, here’s what made me feel better about Dallas heading into this one. I sat down Friday morning and watched the Commanders defense against Philadelphia, and while Washington did some very good things, particularly with its aggressive blitzing, I walked away thinking the Cowboys offense can exploit this unit.

That leads us to the first key to the game. 

1. Force the Commanders away from the blitz

Washington blitzed Jalen Hurts on 44% of his dropbacks in Week 1, and Hurts completed only 40% of his passes on those snaps. That’s impressive. But you just cannot do that against Dak Prescott.

Prescott is one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the blitz. The Cowboys saw improvement from left tackle Tyler Guyton, and they have Cooper Beebe and Tyler Booker as standout offensive linemen. Rookie linebacker Sonny Styles in blitz looks is a concern, especially with a backup in the lineup (LG T.J. Bass) and Terrence Steele remains a worry at right tackle. A big factor here will be the Cowboys’ Javonte Williams, one of the best pass-protecting running backs in the NFL.

To be fair, Styles ran over Saquon Barkley last Sunday. The rookie linebacker out of Ohio State was outstanding. But if the Cowboys can force Washington to rush only four, I don’t think the Commanders have the kind of high-end pass rusher who can win consistently. They’re deep along the defensive line, and their defensive tackle group is decent, but Dallas can block those four and open things up in the passing game.

2. Attack the mismatches with George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb

Commanders cornerbacks Mike Sainristil and Amik Robertson are vulnerable, and I think Pickens can take advantage. Washington is now playing Sainristil at outside cornerback rather than in his previous nickel role, and Pickens has a size mismatch there that Dallas should exploit. Pickens had a couple of dropped passes in Week 1, but he’s a mismatch against any cornerback in Washington’s locker room.

On the inside, CeeDee Lamb should be able to win against nickel cornerback Nick Cross. I will say this about Cross: he was a fantastic watch on film. He’s so fun to watch near the box, making tackles against screens and in run support. In coverage, though, I think the Cowboys have an advantage with Lamb.

3. Contain Jayden Daniels

This is where it gets trickier, because now we’re shifting to the Cowboys defense. My third key to the game is simple: contain Jayden Daniels with his legs. That’s it. That’s the priority.

If Stefon Diggs goes out there and wins some reps against Caleb Downs, fine. It’s going to happen. Diggs had a strong game against Cooper DeJean, who is an All-Pro corner, so he’ll have his moments against Downs. If Daniels attacks with Terry McLaurin, so be it. Just don’t allow Daniels to go off as a runner.

The Cowboys allowed Jaxson Dart to do exactly that in the season opener, and Philadelphia’s defense couldn’t stop Daniels from scrambling either. The difference is that Daniels was improvising more against the Eagles, whereas the Giants were designing runs for Dart. Either way, Dallas failed to contain a mobile quarterback in Week 1, and that feels like the one thing that could kill them against this Commanders offense.

I think the Cowboys can take advantage of the mismatch that Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark present against Washington’s center and left guard, who were being pushed back all game long versus the Eagles. Philadelphia’s Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter are elite, but I expect the Cowboys’ defensive tackles to win in a similar way and allow the linebackers to swarm the running back. 

None of this will be perfect. Dallas is still adjusting, and the defense struggled mightily in the opener. But the one thing that could truly sink the Cowboys on Sunday is Daniels running the football. Take care of these three keys, and I think Dallas beats Washington.