It always seems to start with one tweet. Detroit Lions fans have been clamoring for general manager Brad Holmes to swing a blockbuster trade, sending a first-round or second-round pick for a superstar defender. The Lions need a cornerback, the roster has holes, and the desire for that dopamine hit of a massive acquisition is real. But the question worth asking is whether trading premium draft capital for established players actually leads to championships. After digging through 10 years of NFL trade data, the answer is clear: it almost never works.

The research started with a fan’s mailbag question that sent me down a rabbit hole at 11:30 at night. The question, from Jason DeWitt on Twitter, was simple: How can Brad Holmes burn third- and fourth-round picks on backup quarterbacks, blocking wide receivers, special teams running backs, and project offensive linemen, but won’t trade first- or second-round picks to upgrade the defense?

I get it. I know what Lions fans want more than anything. They want that trade that gets you out of bed in the morning, where a superstar shows up and everyone loses their minds and runs out to buy a jersey. You want that so bad that I think it blinds you a little bit.

56 trades, 4 Super Bowl winners

Year	Team getting player	From	Player	Picks traded	Super Bowl?
2017	Patriots	Saints	Brandin Cooks	2017 1st	No
2017	Rams	Bills	Sammy Watkins	2018 2nd	No
2017	Seahawks	Jets	Sheldon Richardson	2018 2nd	No
2017	49ers	Patriots	Jimmy Garoppolo	2018 2nd	No
2018	Rams	Chiefs	Marcus Peters	2019 2nd	No
2018	Rams	Patriots	Brandin Cooks	2018 1st	No
2018	Bears	Raiders	Khalil Mack	2019, 2020 1sts	No
2018	Cowboys	Raiders	Amari Cooper	2019 1st	No
2019	Browns	Giants	Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon	2019 1st	No
2019	49ers	Chiefs	Dee Ford	2020 2nd	No
2019	Chiefs	Seahawks	Frank Clark	2019 1st, 2020 2nd	Yes — 2019, 2022
2019	Dolphins	Cardinals	Josh Rosen	2019 2nd	No
2019	Texans	Dolphins	Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills	2020, 2021 1sts; 2021 2nd	No
2019	Steelers	Dolphins	Minkah Fitzpatrick	2020 1st	No
2019	Rams	Jaguars	Jalen Ramsey	2020, 2021 1sts	Yes — 2021
2019	Patriots	Falcons	Mohamed Sanu	2020 2nd	No
2020	Cardinals	Texans	DeAndre Hopkins	2020 2nd	No
2020	Falcons	Ravens	Hayden Hurst	2020 2nd	No
2020	Colts	49ers	DeForest Buckner	2020 1st	No
2020	Bills	Vikings	Stefon Diggs	2020 1st	No
2020	Texans	Rams	Brandin Cooks	2020 2nd	No
2020	Seahawks	Jets	Jamal Adams	2021, 2022 1sts	No
2020	Vikings	Jaguars	Yannick Ngakoue	2021 2nd	No
2021	Rams	Lions	Matthew Stafford	2022, 2023 1sts	Yes — 2021
2021	Colts	Eagles	Carson Wentz	2022 conditional pick became a 1st	No
2021	Panthers	Jets	Sam Darnold	2022 2nd	No
2021	Chiefs	Ravens	Orlando Brown Jr.	2021 1st	Yes — 2022
2021	Titans	Falcons	Julio Jones	2022 2nd	No
2021	Rams	Broncos	Von Miller	2022 2nd	Yes — 2021
2022	Broncos	Seahawks	Russell Wilson	2022, 2023 1sts and 2nds	No
2022	Chargers	Bears	Khalil Mack	2022 2nd	No
2022	Raiders	Packers	Davante Adams	2022 1st, 2nd	No
2022	Browns	Texans	Deshaun Watson	2022, 2023, 2024 1sts	No
2022	Dolphins	Chiefs	Tyreek Hill	2022 1st, 2nd	No
2022	Eagles	Titans	A.J. Brown	2022 1st	Yes — 2024
2022	Cardinals	Ravens	Marquise Brown	2022 1st	No
2022	49ers	Panthers	Christian McCaffrey	2023 2nd	No
2022	Ravens	Bears	Roquan Smith	2023 2nd	No
2022	Dolphins	Broncos	Bradley Chubb	2023 1st	No
2022	Bears	Steelers	Chase Claypool	2023 2nd	No
2022	Vikings	Lions	T.J. Hockenson	2023 2nd	No
2023	Jets	Packers	Aaron Rodgers	2023, 2024 2nds	No
2023	Seahawks	Giants	Leonard Williams	2024 2nd	Yes — 2025
2023	Bears	Commanders	Montez Sweat	2024 2nd	No
2024	Giants	Panthers	Brian Burns	2024 2nd	No
2024	Texans	Bills	Stefon Diggs	2025 2nd	No
2025	Steelers	Seahawks	DK Metcalf	2025 2nd	No
2025	Commanders	Texans	Laremy Tunsil	2026 2nd	No
2025	Packers	Cowboys	Micah Parsons	2026, 2027 1sts	No
2025	Colts	Jets	Sauce Gardner	2026, 2027 1sts	No
2025	Cowboys	Jets	Quinnen Williams	2027 1st, 2026 2nd	No
2026	Rams	Chiefs	Trent McDuffie	2026 1st	Not yet
2026	Bills	Bears	DJ Moore	2026 2nd	Not yet
2026	Broncos	Dolphins	Jaylen Waddle	2026 1st	Not yet
2026	Bengals	Giants	Dexter Lawrence	2026 1st	Not yet
2026	Rams	Browns	Myles Garrett	2027 1st, 2028 2nd	Not yet

Going back to the 2017 season, there have been 56 trades in which a team sent a first-round pick, a second-round pick, or both for a starting-caliber player. Out of those 56, only four teams won a Super Bowl with the player they traded for. Four teams. Ten years. Seventy-five trades.

The Rams won with Matthew Stafford and Von Miller. The Chiefs won with Frank Clark. The Eagles won with A.J. Brown. The Seahawks won with Leonard Williams. That’s it. That is the entire list.

Some of these trades are downright embarrassing in hindsight. The Dolphins traded a second-round pick for Josh Rosen. Someone traded premium picks for Dee Ford. Jimmy Garoppolo cost a team a second-rounder. The hit rate on these moves is abysmal, and the teams you think are doing it successfully are not doing it nearly as much as you believe.

The Eagles aren’t doing what you think they’re doing

I always hear about the Eagles. “At least the Eagles are trying.” What have the Eagles done? They built their team the same way the Lions built theirs: through the draft. When you look at the list of teams that have drafted the most Pro Bowlers and All-Pros since 2021, the Lions are at the top and the Eagles are right below them. Philadelphia decided not to draft a running back and signed Saquon Barkley. Beyond the A.J. Brown trade, they went out and got guys like Za’Darius Smith, who didn’t work out. Jaire Alexander didn’t work out. They just signed Kenny Moore.

The weird thing about Kenny Moore is that when Mike Garafolo reported the Lions had checked in on Moore, the narrative was Detroit was dumpster diving. Now that Philadelphia signed him, suddenly it’s a big miss for the Lions. Be consistent, please. Moore wasn’t good until the Eagles signed him, and now he’s good. More than anything, the Eagles have stayed healthy, which the Lions have not, and that’s a whole other conversation.

What the Lions should actually do

I think the Lions should make a trade. I am 100% on board with that, and I think at some point before the deadline this season they will. But they do not need to trade a first- or second-round pick to get it done.

A few days ago after the Lions lost to the Bills, I came on in the heat of the moment and said Detroit should trade a first-round pick for Joey Porter Jr. I take that back. After seeing this data, I take it back even more firmly than before. Do I think trading for Porter would be good? I think it would be great. He’s a really good fit for this team. But they don’t need to give up a first-round pick for him. I don’t know if a second-rounder is something they should part with either. A third-round pick? I would do that all day. A third and a fifth, a third and a fourth, that’s fine too.

The Lions should trade a maximum of a third-round pick for a starting cornerback at some point. First- and second-round picks traded for players just don’t work. Four teams in 10 years, 56 trades. The evidence is right there. Let’s see if anyone actually believes it.