Lions prediction lab: The Jets want one kind of game Sunday, and Detroit has to make sure they never get it
New York wants to control the football, eliminate explosive plays and turn Sunday into a brawl. Detroit’s best path to 2-1 is making sure the game never gets played on those terms.
The Detroit Lions head into Week 3 with a matchup against the New York Jets, and this game comes down to one thing: explosives. Detroit’s ability to generate big plays in the run game and the deep passing attack will determine whether the Lions walk out of this one with a win or get dragged into the kind of ugly, time-of-possession brawl the Jets want to play. Lions quarterback Jared Goff, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and wide receiver Jameson Williams all figure to play major roles in how this game shakes out.
Where the Lions can win
The deep shot game could be the difference-maker here. The Jets could be without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and that’s potentially a massive loss for New York’s secondary. That opens the door for the Lions to go after Williams downfield, something Detroit has wanted to do more of this season. They tried it a little against the Saints, but Jameson was dealing with some drop issues, and you hope that was just a one-week thing. Against the Bills, the Lions played a more conservative style on offense and never really had the chance to take their shots.
This could be the game where that changes.
On top of that, the Jets’ run defense hasn’t allowed much through two weeks, but the competition matters. We’re talking about Tony Pollard and Kaleb Johnson. Neither one of those guys is Jahmyr Gibbs. This is going to be the first real test for that Jets run defense, the biggest test it could possibly have, because Gibbs is the best running back in the league right now. If the Lions run to set up the pass and set up some of those explosive plays, they should be able to win this game outright.
What can get the Lions beat
The Jets are built to drag you into the deep water and drown you. You can go back to Dan Campbell talking about that on Hard Knocks in 2022, how the Lions wanted to become that kind of team. The Jets, under head coach and defensive play-caller Aaron Glenn, play that same style. That’s the kind of defense Glenn had in Detroit, and that’s the kind of defense he has in New York.
New York has held the ball for more than 76 minutes through the first two games. They are going to work on time of possession, and with the Lions’ defense struggling early this season, that’s a problem. If the Jets hold on to the ball all day and the Lions don’t capitalize on every offensive possession they get, this game gets ugly fast.
The Jets also haven’t turned the ball over yet. Geno Smith has thrown zero interceptions. As Dan Campbell said earlier this week, this is going to be a 60-minute brawl. This is not going to be a shootout. This is not going to be a blowout. If the Jets have it their way, this is a lower-scoring, defensive-type affair where New York muddies the waters by keeping the ball out of Detroit’s hands.
That’s the biggest concern. If the Jets win the time of possession battle, beat up the Lions’ defense all day, and don’t give the offense enough opportunities, and then the Lions fail to capitalize on the possessions they do get, that’s how you lose a football game.
What decides this game
It comes down to explosives. Who can have the most, and who can allow the fewest? If the Lions can generate 20-yard plays through the air and get those 15- and 20-yard runs from Gibbs, the kind he ripped off against both Buffalo and New Orleans, that’s going to make a difference. If Williams starts getting loose downfield, that changes everything.
The key is doing all of that without abandoning the run. If Detroit has to abandon the run game, it’s going to hurt them. If they can keep it going all day, they win this game.
The prediction
Lions win, 31-24. The Jets’ defense is susceptible to Gibbs, and they’re susceptible to the deep pass. The Packers and the Titans are just not the same caliber of offense the Lions are, and you can understand why those teams struggled against New York. This could be an awakening for the Jets’ defense in a bad way, the kind of game where you realize there’s a gap between shutting down average offenses and facing a truly elite one.
The Lions’ defense is still a question mark, so the Jets are going to score points. But Detroit has the last possession, goes down and scores, and wins this game at home. Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox.
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