Prediction Lab: The Detroit Lions can beat the Patriots in Germany, but one Drake Maye problem could ruin everything
The Lions have a way to attack New England’s defense, but stopping Drake Maye might be more complicated than getting pressure on him. This week’s Prediction Lab breaks down what decides the game in Munich and who comes out on top.
Guten Tag. The Detroit Lions take on the New England Patriots on Sunday in Munich, Germany. That means it’s time for another edition of our Prediction Lab. Let’s talk about where the Lions can win, what gets them beat, the one thing that decides the game, and our final prediction for Lions vs. Patriots.
Where the Lions can win
Detroit should go up-tempo. Last week, Green Bay had gains of 49, 43, 43, and 28 yards on plays it snapped less than two seconds after the line got set. The Packers beat up New England that way, and the Lions can pick a few spots to do the same.
That doesn’t mean playing fast just to play fast. The Lions need to be intentional. They have to know exactly what they’re doing before the snap, and then they have to do it quickly.
Patriots cornerback Carlton Davis will not play in this game. That gives Detroit a clear target. Christian Gonzalez is not the guy you want to attack, so stay away from his side of the field. Go after whoever steps in for Davis, whether it’s Karon Prunty or Charles Woods. Attack those guys early.
The other big piece is pressure on Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. More importantly, it has to be the right kind of pressure. Maye is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at making you pay when you don’t get home. If the Lions get to him, they can force a bad throw or take him down. That’s where this game can be won.
What gets the Lions beat
Almost sacking Maye. Go back and watch the film on this New England offense. It’s almost like the whole thing is built around Maye escaping the pocket. Once he gets out, the receivers drift to a secondary spot, and he hits them for explosive plays.
You aren’t really worried about Maye running down the field. You’re worried about him getting out of the pocket, adjusting, and making a throw on the run. So if the Lions are going to pressure him, they need to finish. Sack him. Don’t let him go.
Lions cornerback D.J. Reed is not going to play in this game, either. That makes the deep ball an even bigger concern. Maye is going to look for explosives. Detroit has to make sure nobody is running free when he does.
The other side of the ball has its own problem. The Patriots are going to try to take away the middle of the field. Quarterback Jared Goff and the Lions love their crossers and love to attack the middle. If Detroit doesn’t have a plan to work outside the numbers, New England can take away its offense. And if the Lions can’t get running back Jahmyr Gibbs going early, there could be some issues.
The Lions also can’t settle for field goals. They got away with it against Miami because the defense held the Dolphins to nine points. This is not the Miami offense. Maye has accounted for at least three touchdowns in six straight games. New England is scoring points, so when Detroit gets a chance to score, it needs seven.
The thing that decides this game
Watch the first time Maye breaks contain. Does the deep defender stay back, or does everybody start running at the quarterback?
That’s the whole trick here. New England wants you to think Maye is about to go down. It wants everybody chasing him, because that’s what leaves someone open. If the Lions’ defenders stay with their men, they might be OK. If everybody runs at Maye and leaves guys deep, they’re in trouble.
So I want to know what rush Detroit sends at him and what the defenders behind that rush are doing. Maye has been throwing a lot of interceptions. If the Lions can make him settle for short completions, take the ball away, and turn that into seven points, that’s what decides this game. It’s going to come down to turnovers and pressure for both sides.
Final prediction for Lions vs. Patriots
I think this is going to be a harder game for the Lions than some people expect. I still have them winning, 28-24.
I also think wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has a career game. This one means a lot to him, and knowing the guy he is, he’s going to give everything he has in Germany.
That’s what we’ve got for this week’s Prediction Lab. We’ll see what happens on Sunday.
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