Packers’ offense gets golden chance to build consistency as schedule serves up 2 of the NFL’s most vulnerable defenses
Jordan Love and the offense found a rhythm against Chicago, and the numbers behind the next two matchups point toward a real opportunity for Green Bay.
The Green Bay Packers’ offense finally got back on track Sunday. Green Bay scored 31 points against the Chicago Bears, and the total could have been 38 if not for rookie kicker Trey Smack’s mistakes. Now the Packers have a favorable stretch to create some consistency and improve the overall look of the offense.
Over the next two weeks, Green Bay will face the two least efficient defenses in football through the first five weeks of the season. The Packers take on the Dallas Cowboys on “Sunday Night Football” this weekend, and the Detroit Lions are waiting in Week 7.
Worst defense in football
The worse of the two units belongs to Dallas. The Cowboys rank 32nd in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate, which makes them the worst defense in football so far. Dallas has allowed a 50.9% success rate to opposing offenses. Outside of the New Orleans Saints, no other team in the NFL has allowed a success rate over 50%.
One specific weakness sets up well for Green Bay. Through four weeks, the Cowboys ranked 30th in pass rush win rate (the Week 5 numbers aren’t available yet). Even with Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary on the other side, Dallas hasn’t been able to generate pressure. Perhaps that’s partly because of Gary.
The lack of pressure is relevant because Jordan Love is at his best with a clean pocket. That’s exactly why he was so impactful against the Bears on Sunday. If the Cowboys can’t get home, Love should have plenty of time to pick apart a defense that has struggled against just about everyone.
A different problem in Detroit
Week 7 brings a different circumstance. The Lions are certainly a better defensive unit than the Cowboys, but they still rank 31st in EPA per play and 28th in success rate allowed.
Unlike Dallas, Detroit has been able to generate a lot of pressure. The Lions rank fourth in pass rush win rate, via ESPN. However, the secondary has been so bad that the pass rush essentially hasn’t mattered.
Detroit could get some reinforcements over the next few weeks. Safety Brian Branch is on the PUP list and could potentially return. Still, Branch by himself probably wouldn’t be able to fix everything. The bigger concern is the cornerback room, which looks deficient with players like DJ Reed, Roger McCreary, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., and Rock Ya-Sin on the roster.
Offense already trending up
The timing works for Green Bay. Despite early struggles, especially along the offensive line, the Packers have gotten the offense back to a respectable place.
If you only analyze the last two weeks, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Bears, the Packers rank ninth in EPA per play. Over the first three weeks, Green Bay was 30th in the same metric. That’s a significant jump in a short period, and it suggests the offense has found some answers after a slow start to the regular season.
The next two games give the Packers a realistic chance to stack great offensive performances. That doesn’t necessarily mean Green Bay will win both games. The Cowboys and Lions have strong offenses of their own, and those matchups present a separate challenge for the Packers’ defense.
But isolating the battles between the Green Bay offense and the Dallas and Detroit defenses, the Packers should have a clear advantage. If the offense is truly back on track, these next two weeks are the time to prove it.
