Tucker Kraft’s slow return from ACL injury could take a turn in Week 4 as Buccaneers hand Packers a tempting matchup
Through three weeks, the Packers tight end has been nowhere near his 2025 form, and Green Bay needs more from him soon.
Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft doesn’t look fully back from his ACL injury yet. Kraft was one of the best tight ends in football in 2025 before he got hurt. Through three games this season, he is not close to that level. Still, the Week 4 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gives him a real chance to recover at least part of what made him so dangerous.
The numbers explain the concern. Among 42 qualifying tight ends, Kraft is 28th in yards per route run, 36th in passer rating when targeted, 41st in PFF receiving grade, and 35th in PFF pass blocking grade. He has forced only one missed tackle, and that’s probably the biggest loss. Breaking tackles was one of his best weapons in 2024 and 2025, and he hasn’t been able to replicate it so far.
It seems like Kraft has gone through some type of regression, at least while he works his way back to full form. Nonetheless, several factors line up in his favor against Tampa Bay.
The 3-tight end advantage
Formations with multiple tight ends haven’t necessarily been good across the board, but the group with three tight ends has been the best one for Green Bay.
The Packers have used 13 personnel (one wide receiver, one running back, and three tight ends) on 10.7% of their offensive plays. With that grouping, they produce 0.16 EPA per play, which ranks ninth in the NFL. That’s a massive difference compared to 11 personnel, which ranks 24th, and 12 personnel, which ranks 30th.
Therefore, Green Bay has been much more effective with Kraft, Jonnu Smith, and Mark Redman on the field at the same time. The Buccaneers defend 13 personnel well, too. However, they are 31st in the NFL against 12 personnel, so multiple-tight end sets in general could open things up.
A blitz-heavy defense that misses tackles
The Tampa Bay defense is aggressive. The Bucs rank third in blitz usage and second in heavy box usage, and they will certainly want to pressure quarterback Jordan Love. That’s a legitimate problem for the Packers, who have struggled along the offensive line through three weeks and haven’t found answers against teams that blitz them. The Minnesota Vikings showed that in Week 1.
And that’s because the usual formula hasn’t worked. Generally, Green Bay wants to build consistency through the running game and then hunt explosives through the air. The running backs aren’t creating that consistency, and the pass protection isn’t holding up long enough for Love to throw deep.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur hinted earlier this week that the offense will adapt with more short and underneath throws. The interesting aspect is how well that fits this opponent. Tampa Bay are the NFL-worst with 20 missed tackles, and seven players have missed at least two. The average NFL team has missed just 10.5 tackles through three games, so the Bucs are almost doubling that figure.
That’s exactly where Kraft can thrive. Yards after contact after short receptions are what he did best in 2025. On top of that, the Buccaneers’ blitz rate could create hot routes where Kraft becomes the main target.
Offensive line help on the way
The Packers also added veterans to the offensive line. It sounds like Laken Tomlinson will be available at left guard, and Kevin Zeitler could play at right guard as well.
If that happens, Green Bay will have more security in pass protection. As a consequence, the tight ends wouldn’t need to chip or stay in to block as often, and Kraft could run more routes and get more involved in the passing game.
That’s a very specific sequence of events. The offensive line changes, the shift toward underneath passes, Tampa Bay’s missed tackles, and its aggressive blitz approach all point in the same direction. The Packers need Kraft to be that piece again, and the Buccaneers give him a big opportunity to start looking like himself.
