Grok simulates the Los Angeles Chargers’ 2026 NFL season, including game-by-game results, playoff predictions, and more
The Los Angeles Chargers are back on the grass this week with training camp underway. But before the pads are on and the Chargers’ season begins for all intents and purposes, let’s take a look at how the Chargers project in 2026.
The Los Angeles Chargers are back on the grass for the first time in 2026, assembled as a 90-man roster with hopes of getting over the hump. Justin Herbert is, of course, back under center, and the Bolts hope his bookend offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, surround him for the entirety of the 2026 season after injury-riddled campaigns last year.
The defense lost Jesse Minter to the Ravens as he takes over as head coach, but the Chargers gained a brilliant offensive mind via Mike McDaniel at offensive coordinator. So how do things project to look for Los Angeles in 2026? We asked Grok for help.
Justin Herbert 2025 stats
- 3,727 yards passing.
- 26 passing touchdowns.
- 13 interceptions.
Los Angeles Chargers 2026 season simulation
11-6 regular season record, 1st in AFC West (first division title since 2009), #3 or #4 AFC seed, Wild Card round win, Divisional round loss.
Key context heading into the season
- Coaching: Jim Harbaugh (Year 3), new OC Mike McDaniel (scheme upgrade for Justin Herbert with more motion, quick game, and YAC opportunities), new DC Chris O’Leary (continuing a strong defensive identity after Jesse Minter’s departure).
- Core roster: QB Justin Herbert; RBs Omarion Hampton + Keaton Mitchell/Kimani Vidal; WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Tre’ Harris (+ depth); TEs including David Njoku and Oronde Gadsden; OL with healthy Rashawn Slater/Joe Alt, Tyler Biadasz, Cole Strange, and rookies; defense led by Derwin James, Tuli Tuipulotu, Khalil Mack, and first-round edge Akheem Mesidor, plus Dalvin Tomlinson/Teair Tart up front.
- Expectations: Coming off consecutive 11-win seasons and playoff berths (but no postseason wins under Harbaugh). Power rankings generally place them in the 5–14 range; Super Bowl odds around +1500 to +1700; AFC West odds roughly +185–+190 (tight three-team race with Chiefs and Broncos); win total ~9.5–10.5. Schedule starts soft at home then gets brutal.
Health (especially the OL) and McDaniel’s ability to unlock Herbert are the biggest variables. Simulation assumes mostly healthy key players and typical variance.
Regular-season results (11-6)
| Week | Opponent | Result | Score | Record | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Arizona Cardinals | W | 27-17 | 1-0 | Herbert efficient; Hampton runs well in McDaniel’s scheme. |
| 2 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | W | 31-20 | 2-0 | Sweep of Raiders begins; secondary forces turnovers. |
| 3 | at Buffalo Bills | L | 24-28 | 2-1 | Close road loss; Bills’ offense too much in the end. |
| 4 | at Seattle Seahawks | L | 17-23 | 2-2 | Defending champs control the trenches. |
| 5 | vs Denver Broncos | W | 24-21 | 3-2 | Key division win; late Herbert TD drive. |
| 6 | at Kansas City Chiefs | L | 20-27 | 3-3 | Mahomes edge in a physical AFC West battle. |
| 7 | BYE | — | — | 3-3 | Rest and recovery. |
| 8 | at Los Angeles Rams | L | 21-30 | 3-4 | SoFi “away” struggle vs stacked Rams. |
| 9 | vs Houston Texans | W | 28-16 | 4-4 | Defense dominates; Tuipulotu/Mesidor pressure. |
| 10 | at Baltimore Ravens (Mon) | W | 27-24 | 5-4 | Primetime upset; Herbert outduels in a shootout. |
| 11 | vs New York Jets | W | 34-10 | 6-4 | Easy win; offense clicks. |
| 12 | vs New England Patriots (SNF) | L | 17-20 | 6-5 | Tight loss; special teams/missed opportunities. |
| 13 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W | 31-24 | 7-5 | Herbert throws 3 TDs; road resilience. |
| 14 | at Las Vegas Raiders | W | 26-13 | 8-5 | Complete the sweep; playoff positioning strengthens. |
| 15 | vs San Francisco 49ers (TNF) | L | 20-27 | 8-6 | Physical NFC West foe; short week hurts. |
| 16 | at Miami Dolphins | W | 30-22 | 9-6 | McDaniel’s old team; revenge and control. |
| 17 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | W | 24-17 | 10-6 | Critical home win; clinches strong seed position. |
| 18 | at Denver Broncos | W | 23-20 | 11-6 | Season-ending road win seals the division. |
Division standings (sim): Chargers 11-6 (1st), Broncos ~10-7, Chiefs ~9-8, Raiders ~5-12. Chargers take the AFC West on head-to-head and division record.
Team stats highlights (projected): Herbert ~4,200+ yards, 30+ TDs, improved efficiency and fewer sacks under McDaniel. Hampton 1,000+ rushing yards. Defense top-10 in points/yards allowed with strong pass rush and Derwin James playmaking. Offense improves from 2025’s mid-pack scoring.
Postseason
- Wild Card (home): Beat a lower seed (e.g., ~9-8 or 10-7 AFC team such as a Texans/Bengals/Jaguars equivalent) 27-20. First playoff win under Harbaugh. Herbert manages the game; defense creates the decisive takeaway.
- Divisional round (road): Lose to a top seed (Bills, Ravens, or similar) 31-24. Competitive but a couple of critical mistakes and the opponent’s star power prove too much. Season ends with clear progress but still short of the conference title game.
Overall narrative
The Chargers finally claim the division in Harbaugh’s third year thanks to a healthier OL, McDaniel’s scheme fitting Herbert and the skill players, and continued defensive excellence. The middle of the schedule is a gauntlet (Bills, Seahawks, Chiefs, Rams, Ravens, Patriots, 49ers), but they go 5-2 or better in the easier games and steal a couple of tough ones. They remain a “win the regular season, struggle in January” team for now, but this is the closest they’ve been to genuine Super Bowl contention in years. Injury luck or one more offensive weapon could push them further next time.
This is a single simulated path based on current roster/coaching projections, schedule difficulty, and typical NFL variance—results would shift with major injuries, breakout performances, or unexpected regression.