A new data study changes expectations for the Miami Dolphins’ 2026 rookie class
The Miami Dolphins boast a crowded rookie class. A new data study gives us some insight into their odds to all make the team.
Set your expectations accordingly, Miami Dolphins fans. And no, I’m not talking about the team’s projected win-loss record for the coming season.
This team will have the chance to prove to us one way or another how ready to compete they are. But let’s start with a more basic proposition: who is going to make this football team? The 2026 Dolphins boast one of the most crowded rookie draft classes in franchise history. And a fresh data study paints the picture of how likely we are to see all 13 picks make Miami’s 2026 roster.
Data study offers insight into if the Miami Dolphins’ full class will make the 53-man roster
Ryan Paganetti is new to Twitter. But before he hopped on social media, he served as an analytics, game management, and more for the Las Vegas Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, and Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s been to the top of the mountain as a Super Bowl champion with the Eagles. And he’s got some great insight into the competitive edges of the game.
Paganetti put out the historical data for draft selections over the past five seasons. The numbers are simple. What percentage of players picked in each round ultimately went on to make that year’s team? And, as the data suggests, anyone drafted in the 5th-round or earlier should be considered a strong projection to make a team.
That’s good news for names like Seydou Traore, who was the Miami Dolphins’ second drafted tight end of 2026 and is considered by some to be a developmental project.
How the Miami Dolphins’ situation impacts historical odds
But even when you look into the “bubble window” in Rounds 6 and 7, the Miami Dolphins’ team-specific circumstances probably give their selections better than average odds to make the team, too. 81.4% of all sixth-round draft choices made the team over the last five years. Is DJ Campbell, in Year 1 of a new regime and limited offensive line depth and a tight salary cap, going to be cut? It would give up a four year cost-controlled rookie contract. Not likely. I’d give him better than the average odds.
The same can be said for Max Llewellyn, although the addition of Clelin Ferrell this week won’t help those odds. The question for Llewellyn becomes how many EDGEs is the team going to hold? On average, 70.8% of seventh-round picks have made the team. Yes, Miami’s cap and roster situation helps. But he’s the baker’s dozen choice (No. 13). That may hurt his odds more than the situation helps.
But at least now, from a historical standpoint, we know where these guys should stand. Now it’s time to tilt the odds in their favor.
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