The New York Jets head to Soldier Field in Week 4 to take on a 2-1 Chicago Bears team, and the quarterback situation in Chicago is going to play a massive role in how this game unfolds. ESPN Analytics currently gives the Bears a 62.5% chance to win, but the Jets could be catching a break depending on who lines up under center.

Caleb Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out of this game. When Williams’ injury was diagnosed, doctors considered it a three to four-week injury, which would put him on the shelf for this Sunday’s matchup. That leaves two options for Bears coach Ben Johnson: veteran Case Keenum or backup quarterback Tyson Bagent.

Keenum dazzled, but the film is out now

On Monday Night Football, Keenum got the start after Bagent had limited practice reps due to a concussion. And Keenum looked excellent. He threw for 247 yards and two touchdown passes, added a rushing touchdown, and posted a passer rating of 110.8 against the Philadelphia Eagles. That is a dominant performance by any measure.

But here’s the thing. The Eagles didn’t have film on Keenum running Ben Johnson’s offense. The Jets do now. They got to sit back, watch that entire Monday night game, and take in everything Johnson drew up for Keenum. There’s tape to study, tendencies to identify, and adjustments to prepare for.

I think the Jets should want to face Keenum. I know that sounds counterintuitive after the night he just had, but veteran quarterbacks with film on them are a different animal than the unknown. The Jets have a veteran quarterback of their own in Geno Smith, and he’s ballin’ right now, so they understand what experienced signal-callers can do. But preparation is everything in this league, and the Jets can prepare for what they saw last night.

The Bagent unknown is the real concern

Bagent, who did not practice on Thursday or Friday, did have a full practice on Saturday, so he should be available this week if that’s what the Bears decide. And based on what Johnson said today, it sounds like Chicago may be leaning in that direction.

Johnson addressed the quarterback decision today: “we’ll have a discussion as a coaching staff and we’ll see where we need to go from here. But I said it last week and I’ll say it again, there was a reason why Tyson in training camp is our number two quarterback.”

That’s a pretty telling statement. Despite Keenum’s impressive showing, Johnson seems inclined to go with his original quarterback hierarchy. And that could create a problem for the Jets. There is no film on Bagent running this offense in 2026 regular season play. The Jets wouldn’t know how Johnson plans to adjust the scheme to account for Bagent’s skill set, what the play-calling tendencies might look like, or how the Bears offense shifts with him at the controls.

It’s a much more unpredictable situation for a Jets defense trying to get back on track. A defense that started out this season hot against the Titans. 

A chance to reestablish the defense

No matter how you slice it, facing either Keenum or Bagent is a much better outlook than going against Caleb Williams, who is a higher-caliber quarterback than both. That makes this a more winnable game for the Jets.

The Jets defense looked good in Weeks 1 and 2 before struggling mightily in Week 3 against Detroit and that high-powered Lions offense. Week 4 represents a real opportunity to reestablish themselves against a Bears team playing without its franchise quarterback.

The talent is there for the Jets defense to bounce back. The question is whether Chicago’s quarterback decision gives them enough to prepare for. If it’s Keenum, I like the Jets’ chances to game-plan effectively. If it’s Bagent, the Jets are walking into something they haven’t seen on tape this season, and that uncertainty could be the difference in a game that otherwise looks very winnable.