The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-9 over their last 11 games dating back to last season, and Todd Bowles’ hot seat is scorching after Sunday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns.

With a crucial stretch of NFC opponents looming before the bye week, the question isn’t whether Bowles is on the hot seat. It’s how short his leash actually is in 2026.

And while no one is rooting for someone to lose their job, this is a conversation that must be had after years of underachieving and just OK play.

The schedule leaves zero margin for error

Bowles’ tenure in Tampa Bay has been up and down, to say the least. The collapse that started in Week 10 of last season has crept into 2026, and the upcoming schedule offers little reprieve.

Six of the Buccaneers’ next seven games are against NFC opponents, including two divisional matchups against the Panthers and Falcons. The next three games alone feature the Minnesota Vikings, the Green Bay Packers, and the Dallas Cowboys. Then comes the Pittsburgh Steelers, followed by the Panthers, Falcons, and Bears before the Week 10 bye on Nov. 15.

There is a very good chance the Buccaneers are 1-8, 2-7, or 3-6 going into that bye. This team simply cannot be trusted on either side of the ball right now. And that’s the biggest issue.

The Buccaneers typically don’t make in-season firings. They hold on to their guy throughout the season. But if Tampa Bay is woefully under .500 going into the bye, that might be the end of the Todd Bowles era. A 2-7 or 1-8 record, with that slate of NFC games and two division opponents, would effectively eliminate a team from playoff contention based on tiebreakers alone. If the Bucs are out of the playoffs before the bye week, what is the point of holding on to Todd Bowles for the back half of the season?

The Glazers have a financial incentive to act

The Glazers want to win championships. As much as their actions tell you the opposite from time to time, winning makes more money. Right now, though, the Buccaneers fan base is both apathetic and frustrated, which is the worst possible combination for an ownership group. Fans are going to sell their tickets at discounted prices. They’re not going to show up.

The less people show up, the less money the Glazers make. The only thing that changes that trajectory is a change at the top, and that starts with Bowles.

Todd Bowles isn’t blameless in the dysfunction

There are plenty of things that aren’t Todd Bowles’ fault. He’s not Alex Anzalone out there missing tackles and allowing 55-yard catch-and-run touchdowns. He’s not busting coverages. He’s not committing false start penalties or holding penalties in critical moments. He’s not calling the poor offensive scripts. That’s on offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.

But Bowles still isn’t managing games correctly. Look at the decision to kick a field goal to go up 19-16 instead of going for it on fourth-and-2. If the Buccaneers go for it and fail, they still need a touchdown (plus a two point conversion) to win if the Browns go down and score like they did.

At worst, they’d force overtime with a touchdown and PAT. Under the new overtime rules, Tampa Bay would still have a legitimate chance even if Cleveland scored. Not going for it was a bad decision.

The four-man pass rush still isn’t generating pressure, and that’s on Bowles. The trio of edge rusher Yaya Diaby, edge rusher Reuben Bain Jr., and defensive tackle Vita Vea combined for two pressures and zero sacks in Week 2. That is unacceptable.

When Bowles has to blitz to generate pressure, the results are worse. Deshaun Watson went 12-of-15 for 118 yards and a touchdown pass against the blitz, per NextGenStats. No interceptions, one sack. Watson finished top-8 in quarterback rating and top-5 in EPA per dropback against the blitz. The Browns were getting layups because the defenders responsible for filling the voids left by the blitz can’t do it. Part of that is coaching. They’re not being coached properly to cover the areas that need to be filled when an extra rusher is sent.

The penalties reflect a lack of discipline, and that starts with the head coach. Bowles’ stoic demeanor and his general approach to how things need to be run isn’t going to fly anymore. He needs to light a fire under this team now, not in Week 8 or 9 when their backs are against the wall.

This roster is almost fully healthy. It’s not like last year when injuries warranted some leniency. It was Bowles’ decision to fire Josh Grizzard and bring in Robinson, and through two weeks, the 2025 offense looks better than the 2026 offense. All of these decisions and their effects start and end with Bowles.

The bottom line

If the Buccaneers are not winning games in competitive fashion by the bye week, a change should happen. Even if Tampa Bay beats the Steelers, it doesn’t move the needle. It’s an AFC team, and that tiebreaker won’t carry real weight in the final NFC playoff race unless you’re three or four rungs down the tiebreaker ladder.

The games that matter start in Week 3 against the Vikings. If the Buccaneers lose that one, I think they’re cooked. I don’t think they beat the Packers. I don’t think they beat the Cowboys.

It’s a sad state of affairs because Todd Bowles seems like a great human being. He’s always been respectful, and his players love him. But when it comes to running the show and being the head coach, there’s a lot left to be desired, and a lot of it starts with him.