The Tennessee Titans have a 7% chance to finish with the worst record in the NFL this season, according to the live prediction market on Kalshi. That slots Tennessee sixth among all 32 teams, a far cry from the top of the board where the Arizona Cardinals sit at 25% and the Miami Dolphins lurk at 23%.

For a franchise that has owned the bottom of the standings in recent years, sitting at 6th on the “worst record” market qualifies as… genuine progress. Maybe? 

The Cardinals at No. 1 is the real surprise

Arizona leading the pack at 25% is the most eyebrow-raising number on the board. The Cardinals scored a lot of points last season and have legitimate talent on the roster. Jeremiah Love, Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride give them a real collection of playmakers. They even have a decent pair of tackles. This is not a bare cupboard.

The schedule is the problem. Arizona opens at the Los Angeles Chargers and draws the Lions, Broncos, Cowboys, Chiefs, Eagles, and Saints in its non-divisional slate. The NFC West itself features the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams, all of whom believe they can win the division and contend for a Super Bowl. The only breather games are the Raiders, Jets, and Giants. That is a brutal draw, and it explains almost entirely why the market has the Cardinals so high.

But here is the sneaky take on Arizona: they might be a little too good for their own good. The offense can score. In the back half of last season, there were weeks where Jacoby Brissett threw 60 times and the Cardinals still put up 37 points in a loss. That kind of production does not scream “worst record in football.” The new coaching staff could squeeze out one or two more wins than expected, which might hurt their draft positioning more than it helps their future.

Miami is the rightful No. 1

The Dolphins at 23% are the team that should be sitting atop this market. Miami is actively rebuilding with very few proven players on the roster. Devon Achane is a legitimate talent. Malik Willis is on the roster, but that is not exactly stirring the drink at quarterback. Kenneth Grant is a promising defensive lineman, and Chris Bell has upside but is coming back from an ACL tear.

That is a thin group compared to what Arizona can roll out. Combined, the Cardinals and Dolphins account for nearly half of the market probability at 48%, which feels about right for the two most likely candidates.

The full top 6 ‘bottom 6’ on Kalshi

The rest of the market between the Dolphins and Titans fills in with familiar names:

• Cleveland Browns: 11% 
• New York Jets: 10% 
• Las Vegas Raiders: 8% 
• Tennessee Titans: 7%

After Tennessee, there is a significant drop-off. The Falcons are at 5%, followed by the Giants, and Commanders sitting at 4% each. The Panthers and Saints are at 3% before the numbers get too small to matter.

What does this actually mean for the Tennessee Titans?

The gap between the Titans and the top of the board is the real story. Arizona and Miami are over three times more likely to finish with the worst record than Tennessee. For a franchise trying to build around Cam Ward and escape the cycle of picking at the very top of the draft, that separation is a good trend.

While the Titans don’t play the top two teams on this prediction market, they do play many teams surrounding them, including the season opener against the Jets. Tennessee travels to the Giants in Week 3, and hosts the Browns and Commanders midseason, and then travels to the Raiders late in the year.

If the prediction markets play out, the Titans avoid owning the worst record in the league for a third consecutive year. That is not a parade-worthy accomplishment, but it signals that the roster is moving in the right direction, and that Tennessee has enough to stay out of the league’s true basement.

Then, in 2027 we can finally update the standard of expectations.