Packers Playoff Picture: Green Bay has little margin for error after a sequence of bad performances and results

Packers are now third place in the NFC North, behind the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears.

Wendell Ferreira — NFL News Writer
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Nov 10, 2025; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons (1) in action against Philadelphia Eagles offensive tackle Jordan Mailata (68) in the second half at Lambeau Field.
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The Green Bay Packers were the first seed in the NFC two weeks ago. They were at the top of the NFC North for most of the regular season. Not anymore. After a sequence of two home losses to the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles, the Packers fell to the third place in the division, behind the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears.

Despite that not promising streak, the Packers are still in a good position to make the playoffs — at least as a wild card team.

Packers playoff scenarios

Right now, The Athletic‘s playoff tool projects the Packers to have an 81% chance of making the playoffs, which is fifth in the NFC behind the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Detroit Lions. The Bears are way behind with 31%, because they have a tougher remaining schedule. In the NFC North, the Packers have now a 30% chance of winning the division.

Chances of winning the NFC North

  • Detroit Lions 60%
  • Green Bay Packers 33%
  • Chicago Bears 5%
  • Minnesota Vikings 2%

“We’ve got a short week,” head coach Matt LaFleur said after the loss to the Eagles. “We can’t feel sorry for ourselves. We’ve got to figure it out and come back and be better.”

Next week, because they are heavily favored to win against the New York Giants, it’s a big game to keep their chances. If the Packers win, they jump to 85% of chances to make the postseason, but it goes down to 67% with a loss.

As expected, the biggest remaining game of the season will be against the Detroit Lions in Week 13. If the Packers win on Thanksgiving, their playoff chances improve to 91%. A loss and it drops to 75%.

What helps the Packers next week

  • Arizona Cardinals’ win over the San Francisco 49ers (+4%)
  • Minnesota Vikings’ win over the Chicago Bears (+3%)
  • Philadelphia Eagles’ win over the Detroit Lions (+2%)

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