Could the Buffalo Bills win a Super Bowl in Joe Brady’s first season as head coach? I think expecting that might be a step too far. But the expectations should still be sky-high.

USA Today released its 2026 NFL schedule predictions, and the outlet has Joe Brady and the Bills projected to finish 11-6 in his first year at the helm. That tracks with what most analysts and fans expect from Buffalo this season. Most outlets have the Bills winning double-digit games and making the playoffs. I don’t think that’s controversial at all. The real question is just how far this team should be expected to go.

Why expectations should be high

Look, there are a few things we know for certain heading into this season.

First, the Bills have Josh Allen. I think he’s the best quarterback in the league, but even if you want to push back on that, you cannot deny he is a top-5, probably even top-3 quarterback in the NFL. He’s in his prime, and that alone raises the floor for any coaching staff walking in the door.

Second, we saw multiple first-time head coaches find success last season. Ben Johnson took the Chicago Bears into the playoffs and Liam Coen did the same with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Neither coach reached a Super Bowl, but both delivered strong first-year results with teams that had been struggling before they arrived.

Now, the Bills’ situation is different. Buffalo hasn’t been struggling. They’ve made the playoffs every year for a while now. They just haven’t gotten over the big hump and reached the Super Bowl. So Joe Brady isn’t inheriting a rebuild. He’s walking into a playoff-caliber roster with a franchise quarterback. That’s a much better starting point than what Johnson or Coen had to work with in Chicago and Jacksonville.

The Super Bowl question

This is where I’m genuinely torn. On one hand, you’ve got Allen, you’ve got a championship-caliber roster, and you’ve got a coaching staff with fresh energy. On the other hand, it is extremely tough for a first-time head coach to win a Super Bowl in his first season. That almost never happens.

I really do think the expectation should be to at least reach the AFC Championship Game in Year 1. I know that sounds like a high bar, but the Bills’ roster and their quarterback put them in position to do that. This isn’t some hopeful projection based on nothing. The talent is there.

However, I do not think it is fair to expect Buffalo to make and win a Super Bowl in Brady’s first year. That’s asking too much of any first-year coach, even one with this much talent around him.

Expectations will shift

Here’s the thing, though. I know how this works. If the Bills finish the year around 11-6 like USA Today projects, get into the playoffs, and start looking like the best team in the AFC, the expectation is going to be for them to finally get over the hump. That’s just how it goes. Expectations change over time based on how the regular season plays out.

But sitting here right now, the fair expectation for Year 1 of Joe Brady in Buffalo is a deep playoff run. Get to the AFC Championship Game. Show that this team is ready to take the next step. A Super Bowl? That would be incredible, but holding it against a first-year head coach if he doesn’t get there would be unfair given how rare that accomplishment truly is.