The Dallas Cowboys defense ranks 30th in EPA per play through two weeks of play, via RBSDM. The New York Giants ran them over in Week 1. Jayden Daniels carved them up in the first half in Week 2. And yet, I’m ready to say what many fans, media, and content creators don’t want to say. 

They’ll improve significantly. There are real reasons to believe this unit will get better. Not top-10 better. Not Legion of Boom better. But good-enough better. Which was kind of the plan all along, by the way. 

Cowboys fans might have forgotten, but this was always the conversation during the offseason. When heads were still cool, the goal was never for the defense to carry the team. The goal was for Dallas to field a unit that wouldn’t lose games on its own, one good enough that the Dak Prescott-led offense could do its thing, get the Cowboys to a winning record, and push toward the playoffs.

Based on what the film shows through 2 weeks, that goal remains realistic. Here are three specific reasons why.

The coverage tightened up significantly from Week 1 to Week 2

This is the most important development. Against Washington, the Cowboys’ coverage looked so much more solid than it did in the opener. By the way, they were above average against the pass in EPA/play terms in Week 2, even if you filter out the second half against Marcus Mariota.

There were multiple plays where Jayden Daniels scrambled because everything was locked up in the secondary.

Compare that to Week 1, where blown assignments were everywhere, and the difference is striking. Even the Commanders’ best deep shot opportunity, a throw into the right corner of the end zone, wasn’t a busted coverage. Cornerback Cobie Durant got outrun on the play, and Daniels missed the throw anyway. That’s a personnel concern, not a schematic breakdown.

Here’s why that matters: the Cowboys’ biggest issue in Week 1 was that the back end wasn’t on the same page. By Week 2, you could tell on film that the rules in coverage had been cleaned up considerably. There’s no larger jump this defense was going to make from Week 1 to Week 2 other than perhaps the bye week. Seeing that kind of jump now was significant.

Questions remain about Durant when he returns from injuries and about Shavon Revel Jr., who is likely being forced into a starting role in Week 3. But the schematic progress is promising.

Jaishawn Barham changes the linebacker picture

This might be a slight overreaction, and I’ll own that, but the film demands attention. Barham looked comfortable starting at middle linebacker and wearing the green dot against Washington. He worked downhill, dipped through blocks, took on contact, and was physical in a way the Cowboys have desperately needed at the position.

More importantly, he looked like a totally different player in coverage compared to Week 1. The entire conversation after the opener was about Barham missing his flat assignment. First drive against the Commanders? Barham worked to the flat and made the tackle in open space. He finished with four stops, the most on the Cowboys, and forced a fumble.

I believe DeMarvion Overshown won’t get the green dot back when he returns. If the conversation becomes Barham starting alongside Overshown, with Overshown used in his best role and Dee Winters competing at weakside linebacker, that’s a much better setup for Dallas.

One caveat: Brian Schottenheimer acknowledged they’re still working on Barham’s conditioning, mixing game reps with bike work. Improvement on that front may not come quickly given the short week, with the Cowboys flying to Brazil on Thursday night. Still, the early returns are encouraging.

Caleb Downs is exactly who we thought he was

Downs didn’t have a perfect game. He made a mistake in the end zone that cost the Cowboys a touchdown, and he was involved in coverage near the corner of the end zone where Stefon Diggs found the end zone a second time. But Downs is already looking like the Cowboys’ best tackler on the field.

He made plays against the run from depth at safety. He took the right angle on a Jayden Daniels scramble, made the tackle in open space, and came within inches of stopping a big gain entirely. He forced an incompletion with a big hit while working from the curl-flat zone downfield. Great reaction, great instincts, doing what he does best as a chess piece who moves around the defense.

And the attitude is there, too. Downs talked about that big hit on his podcast and said that later in his career, that’s going to be an interception. That’s exactly the mindset you want from a young safety.

Will the Cowboys defense evolve into a Top 10 defense? I wouldn’t bet on it. But to be honest, there are positive signs on film that this will get better. Don’t rule them out just yet.