2027 NFL Mock Draft: 6 QBs go in the top 9 despite Arch Manning not being the top selection, several early surprises
No signal-caller has separated himself as the clear-cut No. 1 pick, and that uncertainty is driving a massive run on quarterbacks at the top of the board.
The 2027 NFL Draft quarterback class is shaping up to be one of the wildest in recent memory. Through four weeks of the college football season, no signal-caller has completely separated himself as the clear-cut No. 1 overall pick, and that uncertainty is creating a massive quarterback run at the top of the board.
On this week’s edition of Best Pod Available, Joe DeLeone and I went through all 32 first-round picks using current Super Bowl odds rather than simply the NFL standings to project the draft order. The reasoning is simple: using current records and tiebreakers can produce an unrealistic draft order this early in the season. Super Bowl odds give us a different way to estimate where teams could ultimately land.
That approach produces a fascinating first round, with six quarterbacks coming off the board within the first nine picks and several elite non-quarterbacks sliding because of the run at the position.
DeLeone made the picks for the odds. I had the evens. Let’s have some fun.
1. Miami Dolphins — Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
Projection: The Dolphins get the opportunity to add the best non-quarterback in the draft and don’t overthink it. Jeremiah Smith has continued to look like a special prospect and recently exploded for four touchdown catches against Illinois.
With no quarterback clearly establishing himself as the No. 1 pick, Miami gets an opportunity to pair Smith with an already talented offensive core. Smith’s combination of size, explosiveness and contested-catch ability gives the Dolphins a potential game-changing weapon.
2. Tennessee Titans — Arch Manning, QB, Texas
Projection: If Tennessee is picking this high, the franchise will need to seriously consider resetting the quarterback position.
Arch Manning hasn’t looked like the automatic No. 1 pick many expected entering the season, but his physical talent and upside remain obvious. He has enough traits to justify taking the swing at No. 2, particularly for a team that could be searching for a long-term answer under center.
3. Arizona Cardinals — Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
Projection: This is where the quarterback class starts getting really interesting.
Drew Mestemaker has gradually rebuilt his stock after an ugly Week 1 performance. His tape has improved each week, and his performance against West Virginia helped push him further into the first-round conversation.
Taking him this high would be aggressive, but that’s exactly what makes this quarterback class so unpredictable. If Mestemaker continues trending upward, this pick could become much less surprising by April.
4. Cleveland Browns — Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
Projection: Chambliss remains one of the most fascinating quarterbacks in the class.
His performance against Florida wasn’t his best, but the traits that made him a first-round candidate haven’t disappeared. Chambliss is fearless attacking the middle of the field and brings legitimate athletic ability as a runner.
The Browns could use a dynamic quarterback who changes the way defenses have to defend them, and Chambliss gives them that possibility.
5. New York Jets — Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
Projection: Darian Mensah’s stock continues to rise, and this would be an enormous swing for New York.
Mensah has demonstrated the arm talent and accuracy to operate a modern NFL offense. His emergence has also made him one of the more intriguing names in an increasingly crowded quarterback class.
With three quarterbacks already off the board, the Jets aren’t waiting around for another position.
6. New York Giants — Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
Projection: Leonard Moore might be the best overall player on the board at this point, regardless of positional value.
At roughly 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds, Moore combines size, speed and three years of high-level production. He has the profile of an outside corner who can immediately become a team’s No. 1 option.
The Giants also have a clear need for another premier outside corner, making this one of the cleaner fits in the entire mock.
7. Carolina Panthers — Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson
Projection: Carolina passes on quarterback here after recent encouraging performances from Bryce Young and instead adds a talented cornerback.
Ashton Hampton brings the athletic profile to develop into a starting outside corner at the next level. Carolina gets a player who fills a significant defensive need without forcing a quarterback selection simply because one is available.
8. Atlanta Falcons — Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Projection: Dante Moore’s stock has taken a hit, but this might ultimately be one of the most interesting value selections in the draft.
A concussion and some inconsistent play have created questions around Moore, but his arm talent and ability to make difficult throws haven’t disappeared.
If Atlanta has a chance to add Moore at No. 8 after six quarterbacks have already come off the board, the Falcons could view it as an opportunity to acquire a quarterback who once looked like a potential top-three selection.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers — CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
Projection: CJ Carr has quietly done enough to put himself firmly into the first-round conversation.
Carr has improved from last season and continues to show the cerebral approach and accuracy that make him an intriguing NFL prospect. Pittsburgh gets a quarterback with the potential to operate a structured offense while still possessing enough arm talent to make plays outside of structure.
It’s also an interesting fit given the type of quarterback traditionally valued by Mike McCarthy.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
Projection: Charlie Becker gives Tampa Bay another explosive element in the passing game.
Becker has emerged as one of the more highly regarded receivers in the class, with current prospect boards placing him firmly among the top wideouts.
His ability to threaten vertically would give Tampa Bay another weapon capable of stretching defenses.
11. Las Vegas Raiders — Reed Harris, WR, Arizona State
Projection: The Raiders add another weapon around Fernando Mendoza and Brock Bowers.
Reed Harris gives Las Vegas another young receiver capable of growing alongside its young offensive core. The fit makes sense as the Raiders continue building an offense around explosive skill-position players.
12. Los Angeles Chargers — Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas
Projection: There’s no realistic scenario where Colin Simmons falls this far on actual draft night if his current trajectory continues.
Simmons just produced a five-sack performance against Tennessee, tying a Texas school record, and his overall physical profile has made him one of the premier defensive prospects in the class.
The only reason he falls to No. 12 in this exercise is the extraordinary quarterback run at the top.
For the Chargers, however, it would be an easy decision.
13. Washington Commanders — Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU
Projection: Trey’Dez Green gives Washington a matchup problem at tight end.
Green has the size and receiving ability to create problems against linebackers and safeties. With the NFL increasingly valuing versatile tight ends, this class could produce several first-round options, and Green is one of the most intriguing.
14. New York Jets (via Colts) — Kelley Jones, CB, Mississippi State
Projection: The Jets double down on their secondary by adding Kelley Jones.
Jones has the physical tools and coverage ability to develop into a starting NFL corner. After addressing offense at No. 5, New York gets an opportunity to strengthen another important area of the roster on the back end.
15. Dallas Cowboys (via Packers) — Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
Projection: Dallas gets one of the best offensive tackles in the class.
Jordan Seaton has the size and athleticism teams look for at tackle, and current draft boards have him firmly in first-round territory.
The Cowboys have historically prioritized the offensive line, and adding another high-end tackle prospect with legitimate traits would keep that position group as one of the team’s defining strengths.
16. New Orleans Saints — Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina
Projection: The Saints land one of the premier defensive playmakers in the class.
Dylan Stewart has long been viewed as one of the top edge prospects in the 2027 class, and his combination of size, athleticism and pass-rush upside makes him an appealing fit for New Orleans. He is dealing with some off field questions, but the talent could be too much to pass up.
17. New England Patriots — Yhonzae Pierre, EDGE, Alabama
Projection: New England adds another young pass rusher with legitimate upside.
Pierre has already demonstrated the ability to generate pressure, and his physical tools give him the potential to become a three-down defensive lineman. He just feels like a New England Patriot, giving off a lot of Kyle Van Noy vibes.
18. Houston Texans — Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas
Projection: Houston keeps a premier local product in Texas.
Trevor Goosby is one of the highest-regarded offensive tackles in the class, with his size and athleticism giving him legitimate first-round potential.
The Texans add another building block to the offensive line and potentially solidify the position for years.
19. New York Jets (via Cowboys) — Deuce Alexander, WR, Ole Miss
Projection: After selecting a quarterback and cornerback earlier, the Jets add another weapon for their new offense.
Deuce Alexander gives Darian Mensah even more young targets to grow with. The Jets leave the first round having addressed three major areas of the roster.
20. Minnesota Vikings — Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
Projection: The Vikings add another versatile weapon to their offense.
Jamari Johnson has the athletic profile to be a dangerous receiving tight end, and the current 2027 prospect landscape suggests the position could produce several legitimate first-round candidates.
Minnesota gets another mismatched piece for its passing game.
21. Chicago Bears — Will Echoles, DT, Ole Miss
Projection: Chicago adds some much-needed interior disruption.
Will Echoles has the size and athletic ability to create problems from the interior. His current stock has him firmly in the first-round discussion, and the Bears get a player who could immediately help strengthen the defensive front.
22. Denver Broncos — Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida
Projection: Jadan Baugh becomes the first running back off the board.
Baugh has continued to make a name for himself as one of the most intriguing backs in the class. His physical running style gives Denver a potential tone-setter in the backfield.
He also provides a legitimate complementary piece for the Broncos’ passing game.
23. Cincinnati Bengals — Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia
Projection: Cincinnati gets a chance to add a talented outside corner in Ellis Robinson IV.
Robinson has the size, athleticism and pedigree to develop into a starting NFL corner. Most believe that his outrageous physical gifts place him among the top cornerback prospects.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars — Trevor Lauck, OT, Iowa
Projection: Jacksonville continues investing in its offensive line.
Trevor Lauck is a physical tackle prospect with the profile to become a dependable NFL starter. The Jaguars get another opportunity to protect their quarterback and improve their run game with a first-round offensive lineman.
25. Detroit Lions — Brauntae Johnson, S, Notre Dame
Projection: The Lions add a versatile defensive back in Notre Dame’s Brauntae Johnson.
Johnson has the athleticism to play multiple roles in a defensive backfield and gives Detroit another young piece for its secondary.
26. Philadelphia Eagles — Greg Johnson, IOL, Minnesota
Projection: The Eagles continue their tradition of investing heavily in the offensive line.
Greg Johnson gives Philadelphia a physical interior offensive lineman who can potentially develop into a long-term starter. He is a favorite of many draft analysts, and feels like the long term replacement for the often injured Landon Dickerson.
It’s a very Eagles-type selection late in Round 1.
27. Kansas City Chiefs — DJ Vonnahme, TE, Iowa
Projection: Kansas City adds another dynamic option to Patrick Mahomes’ offense.
DJ Vonnahme gives the Chiefs another tight end capable of creating mismatches in the middle of the field. With the tight end class shaping up to be deeper than initially expected, Kansas City gets a potential difference-maker late in the first round.
28. San Francisco 49ers — Kade Pieper, C, Iowa
Projection: The 49ers strengthen the interior of their offensive line with Kade Pieper.
Pieper has developed into one of the more intriguing interior offensive linemen in the class. Current prospect rankings have him firmly in the early-round conversation.
San Francisco gets a potential long-term answer at center.
29. Seattle Seahawks — Clev Lubin, EDGE, Louisville
Projection: Clev Lubin gives Seattle an intriguing pass-rush prospect late in the first round.
Lubin doesn’t have the prototypical frame of some of the other top edge rushers, but his burst and relentless approach make him an interesting developmental prospect. He has been described as a sub-package rusher with an unconventional build but notable pass-rush juice.
Seattle gets a chance to develop those traits into a larger role.
30. Baltimore Ravens — Anthonie Knapp, IOL, Notre Dame
Projection: The Ravens continue to build through the trenches.
Anthonie Knapp gives Baltimore another versatile interior offensive lineman who can compete for a starting role at multiple spots. The Ravens have consistently valued offensive-line depth, and this is the type of pick that fits that philosophy.
31. Cleveland Browns (via Rams) — Jordan Ross, EDGE, LSU
Projection: Cleveland comes back into the first round and adds another defensive playmaker.
Jordan Ross gives the Browns more athleticism and pass-rush upside off the edge. After taking Trinidad Chambliss at No. 4, Cleveland uses its second first-rounder to strengthen the opposite side of the ball.
32. Buffalo Bills — Chris Cole, LB/EDGE, Georgia
Projection: Chris Cole closes out the first round with one of the most intriguing athletic profiles in the class.
Cole has the versatility to play linebacker or rush off the edge, but his athletic testing could ultimately determine just how high he climbs. If he tests anywhere near the elite range his film suggests, his draft stock could explode.
A prospect capable of potentially running in the 4.3s at around 240 pounds would immediately become one of the biggest stories of the pre-draft process.
