Texas has a surprising upper hand against Ohio State and the reasoning behind it is about much more than Arch Manning

This weekend’s matchup between Texas and Ohio State very well could be the most anticipated matchup of the CFB regular season, and yet the Longhorns might have a clear advantage.

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Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Kenyatta Jackson Jr. (97) chases Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) during the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025.
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Kenyatta Jackson Jr. (97) chases Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) during the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Aug. 30, 2025. Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State Buckeyes versus Texas Longhorns. This has been the game everyone has talked about all offseason, the projected game of the year in college football.

You can make an argument for Ole Miss-LSU with all the drama there surrounding Lane Kiffin, but this is a heavyweight fight actually taking place on the field. And I think the best way to preview it is to give you the prediction and explain myself.

So, first and foremost, I’m going with the Texas Longhorns to win this football game, and I have a couple of reasons baked into it.

The home-field advantage and the Longhorns’ rushing attack

If you are motivating Texas enough at home, that environment can be rowdy, and it can impact the game. Arch Manning statistically has been a better quarterback at home versus on the road. But I don’t even think Texas needs Arch Manning to win them this football game. I think they just need him to not lose it.

A lot rides on Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers in this rushing attack, and more specifically the offensive line for Texas. I think they got better in all of those areas, and they’re going to be a great stress test to an Ohio State defensive line that is replacing a ton, even into the linebackers. And we could talk about the loss of Caleb Downs.

By all means, Ohio State is a factory. They can replenish talent with the best of them. But I’m willing to call their bluff, and I think Texas might be able to run the football a little bit better than people are expecting and the crowd will come alive because of it.

Will Muschamp changes the defensive equation

Defensively, you insert Will Muschamp as the new defensive coordinator with a new scheme, and I think Texas is going to try to speed up Julian Sayin. You may end up giving a chunk play or two to Jeremiah Smith, who had been boxed up by the Longhorns in the first two matchups. You can even make it Smith’s best performance yet, but if you can create more turnovers and create more sacks, I think the overall game script plays more into Texas’ favor if they go down that path.

And of course, there are things that could absolutely backfire here. Sayin could get sped up, but it doesn’t matter because he handles pressure better than ever before. Maybe the defensive line and overall front seven on the other side of the ball for Ohio State is just that good and breaks this Texas offensive line and the Longhorns can never get going.

But I’ve talked about all offseason how good this Texas team is. I think they’re up to the challenge. They’re going to be at home, we see the best version of Arch Manning yet, and the Longhorns get the job done on defense. I’m stamping it.

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