The Atlanta Falcons quarterback situation is one of the more fascinating storylines in the NFL right now.

Michael Penix Jr. carries legitimate questions about durability and performance level, and the 2027 NFL Draft class could offer a clean reset if the front office decides to move on. The conversation around Penix is more nuanced than simple on-field production, and Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr’s connection to Falcons offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adds an additional layer worth exploring.

What Michael Penix Jr. needs to show

There are a couple of layers to evaluating Penix from here until the end of the season.

The injury history is impossible to ignore. Dating back to his time at Indiana and Washington, Penix has always dealt with availability concerns. He missed the majority of last season, wasn’t ready for the first two weeks of this year, and the Falcons desperately needed him to avoid a slow start.

If Penix deals with any other injuries this season and misses time, that should be the first non-starter. The Falcons cannot keep doing this. He was banged up throughout his college career, missed most of last season, and if he goes down again after not being available early this year, it is time to move on.

If he stays healthy and plays the entire year, it comes down to performance. If Penix is around the 20th-best quarterback in the NFL, that creates a complicated situation.

With weapons like tight end Kyle Pitts, running back Bijan Robinson, and wide receiver Drake London, the 20th-best quarterback might be enough to push Atlanta into the teens in draft positioning. The NFC South is not a division with a clear-cut best team. The margins are thin, and there is an opportunity for multiple teams to compete for the division title.

The problem with picking somewhere in the teens is that quarterback becomes nearly impossible to address in the first round. This draft class does not appear deep enough at the position to justify reaching, and with so many teams dealing with unsettled quarterback situations, the players with starter potential are likely getting traded up for.

Atlanta would find itself right back where it started, talking itself into a guy being the future.

The veteran alternative does not solve the problem

If Penix plays the whole year and looks mediocre, would the Falcons be better off pursuing a veteran quarterback or rolling with Penix plus a second- or third-round dart throw?

The veteran route feels like purgatory. Replacing Penix with someone like a Mac Jones takes the Falcons from the 20th-best quarterback to maybe the 18th-best quarterback. The counter-argument is that the 18th-best quarterback would probably play every week, and availability matters.

Still, that marginal upgrade does not take Atlanta where it wants to go.

Rolling with Penix and a developmental pick in the middle rounds feels like the better gamble if the team is picking in the teens. At least there is a chance to find upside rather than treading water with a lateral move.

CJ Carr to Atlanta makes too much sense

If the Falcons are picking in the top 10 and Penix plays poorly enough to warrant moving on, one name needs to be planted now: Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr.

The connection to Rees is significant.

In the 2024 recruiting class, Carr does not come to Notre Dame without Rees. He was instrumental in that recruitment, and the two have maintained a close relationship.

Behind the scenes, a comparison Rees made for Carr during the recruiting process was Matt Ryan. That parallel is striking given the Falcons context. Ryan has deep roots in the Atlanta organization as both a former player and a current member of the front office.

There is also a backstory worth noting.

At one point, Oregon QB Dante Moore was silently committed to Notre Dame, and Carr wanted to publicly commit. There was a disagreement on the back end because Moore’s camp did not want to go to the same school as Carr, given that both are Michigan guys.

Notre Dame had to choose: wait on Moore or take Carr’s commitment and move on from the Moore recruitment. They chose Carr, largely because Rees was that high on him.

Carr sits in that middle ground of the top-10 quarterbacks in this class. He has not generated enormous buzz early in the season, but everyone recognizes the talent.

If he builds off his first year as a starter and the Falcons are sitting at pick No. 7 or No. 8 with Carr staring them in the face, Rees would almost certainly be a huge advocate to bring him to Atlanta. The Matt Ryan comparison, the recruiting relationship, and the organizational ties make it feel like a foregone conclusion if the stars align.