The Cincinnati Bengals are well positioned to return to the NFL playoffs with a 6-2 record. How they make the AFC bracket, however, may depend entirely on their Week 10 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football in its return to Paycor Stadium. The Steelers share the Bengals’ 6-2 record, but they hold the AFC North tiebreaker after winning the first meeting of the series in Week 3.

The Bengals’ chances of reclaiming the division hinge heavily on what happens Sunday night. The numbers show just how much.

What a win or loss means for the Bengals’ playoff odds

Entering Week 10, the Bengals have a 65% chance of winning the AFC North, according to the A to Z Sports NFL Playoff Predictor. Cincinnati is currently projected to win 12.1 games by the end of the regular season based on 10,000 simulated seasons.

A win over Pittsburgh changes the picture in a big way. Getting even with the Steelers boosts the Bengals’ chances of winning the division by 19%, giving them an 84% chance of taking the North. Their most likely record would be 13-4, and their chance of landing the No. 1 seed in the AFC would climb from 14% to 20%.

A huge swing in one direction means an even bigger swing in the other.

Should the Bengals lose at home and fall to 0-2 against the Steelers, their chances of winning the division drop by 30% to just 35%. Their most likely record would land at 11-6, and their odds of earning the conference’s No. 1 seed drop to 4%.

The good news for Cincinnati is that its playoff hopes aren’t on the line. The Bengals will still have at least an 88% chance of making the postseason no matter how this game goes. Whether they host a game in the first round, however, may depend entirely on whether they can pull even with Pittsburgh.

History isn’t on Cincinnati’s side

Getting that done won’t be easy, even with the Bengals listed as 3.5-point favorites at sportsbooks.

Per The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr., teams coming off of an international game are 0-5 the next week against teams that are coming off of a bye week.

That’s exactly the spot Cincinnati finds itself in. The Bengals are fresh off beating the Atlanta Falcons in Madrid, Spain, while the Steelers spent the weekend resting up on their bye.

The well-rested team has historically held a major advantage against the squad that just finished playing overseas. Travel, time zone adjustments, and a short recovery window all pile up, and Pittsburgh gets an extra week to prepare for a division rival it has already beaten once.

The Bengals have every reason to feel good about where they stand at 6-2. They also have every reason to take this trend seriously.

A big Sunday night incoming 

The NFL schedule-makers absolutely cooked with this one. Two 6-2 division rivals, a tiebreaker on the line, and a primetime stage at Paycor Stadium make for one of the most important regular season games the Bengals have played in years.

A win puts Cincinnati in the driver’s seat to take back the North for the first time in four years. A loss doesn’t end those hopes, but it would make reclaiming the division all the more impressive two months from now.

Either way, the Bengals will know a lot more about their January outlook once Sunday night is over.