Boca Raton Bowl Preview: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs James Madison Dukes Breakdown, Odds, Prediction
College Football bowl season is upon us after an insane 2024 season. The craziness of the 12-team playoff gave us some incredible discourse and interesting games, but it also left us with some intriguing bowl matchups of teams we don't see all that often. I'll be previewing every bowl game for the rest of the […]
College Football bowl season is upon us after an insane 2024 season. The craziness of the 12-team playoff gave us some incredible discourse and interesting games, but it also left us with some intriguing bowl matchups of teams we don't see all that often.
I'll be previewing every bowl game for the rest of the postseason. This one features two of the better Group of Five teams in the country for the Boca Raton Bowl between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and James Madison Dukes.
Boca Raton Bowl Preview
Who: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Away), James Madison Dukes (Home)
When: Wednesday, December 18th; 5:30 PM ET
Channel: ESPN
Spread: James Madison -7
O/U: 51.5
If you haven't watched Western Kentucky, you missed an efficient passing attack that guided the Hilltoppers to the Conference-USA championship game. The Hilltoppers finished 32nd in the country in passing offense on their way to an 8-5 record.
Unfortunately, this matchup has lost some of its luster. Hilltoppers' starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp entered the transfer portal. Additionally, 26 other Western Kentucky players entered the portal this offseason, including the backup quarterback T.J. Finley. However, Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton did say that Veltkamp will still play in the bowl game despite entering the portal.
Western Kentucky's defense isn't much to write home about either. They have arguably the worst rushing defense in the country this season, giving up 221.9 yards per game on the ground with a 4th-percentile run-stuff rate. However, they did finish 11th in the country in passing yards allowed, though admittedly, that might be because opponents chose to run on the Hilltoppers instead.
James Madison started the season hot, scoring 70 points on North Carolina early in the year before sputtering at the end, losing its last two games. Additionally, starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III won't play in the bowl game after a leg injury he suffered at the end of the year.
In his place will be backup Billy Atkins, who has been with the team for four years with little playing time. He has completed just 29 of his 59 passes with the Dukes. However, he hasn't thrown more than two passes the last two seasons for James Madison.
However, the Dukes do boast a good rushing attack, led by George Pettaway. Pettaway and Barnett led the team in rushing this year, with over 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns between the two. With Barnett out, this workload now passed to Pettaway and second-string running back Wayne Knight to lead their rushing attack.
Fortunately for James Madison, they have the defense to back up an offense missing its starting quarterback. The Dukes are top-50 in virtually every metric this season, with top-ten finishes in every EPA metric versus the pass. They also finished 11th in stop rate this season according to ESPN.
Boca Raton Bowl Prediction
This one is a tough one to predict, with how many variables are at play.
I'm more encouraged by Western Kentucky making a game out of it with Veltkamp playing in this one. However, they have had almost 30 players enter the transfer portal on a defense that was already struggling.
On the other hand, James Madison doesn't have their starting quarterback, which reduces my enthusiasm about their offense. Their defense is still the best unit on the field in this game though, which helps balance that out some.
At the end of the day, I think James Madison will be able to grind a victory out of this bowl game on the ground. Western Kentucky will be able to find a few explosive plays through the air and will keep it a game, but in a game like this, I'm going to trust the team that can run the ball and play good defense.
My final predictions are to take the under, with Western Kentucky covering the spread.
Prediction: James Madison 24, Western Kentucky 20
