Iowa has one path to pulling off the upset against Ohio State but the Buckeyes are built to make that path impossible

Iowa can drag Ohio State into the kind of ugly low-scoring game it doesn’t want to play, but this Buckeyes team has too much talent and explosiveness to stay there for four quarters.

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Oct 5, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) runs past Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Quinn Schulte (30) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won 35-7.
Oct 5, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) runs past Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Quinn Schulte (30) during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won 35-7. Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Somehow, this is College GameDay’s Game of the Week.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are traveling to Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes, and while the setting might scream trap game to some (and something ESPN is likely banking on), the reality of this matchup tells a very different story.

What Iowa needs to do to potentially pull off an upset

Let’s live in la-la land with fairy tales, butterflies, and unicorns for a second. What does Iowa have to do to win this game? They have to play Iowa football. The Hawkeyes have to drag Ohio State into the mud, get the Buckeyes to their level, limit the explosives, and try to stop the best player on the face of the planet in Jeremiah Smith. They need to run the football effectively, not make mistakes, and keep this a low-scoring affair.

And you may say, Tegan, that sounds like it could work. Sure, in theory. Iowa is going to need maybe one, probably two plays on special teams to swing the game. And on top of that, they’re going to need a disaster class from Ohio State. Maybe force quarterback Julian Sayin into some really tough predicaments, which I think Iowa has the capabilities of doing. Their defense is built for that kind of disruption. But, there’s a problem with that logic actually coming to fruition for the Hawkeyes.

Ohio State is immune to this kind of game

Here’s where I stand on this matchup and the way Iowa is going to approach it. I think this iteration of Ohio State football is immune to this kind of game.

Outside of what we saw with Purdue, and you can look at examples way far into the past, this Buckeyes team has been built to avoid the mud fight. They are too talented, too deep, and too explosive for Iowa to contain them for four quarters. Jeremiah Smith alone is a matchup nightmare that the Hawkeyes simply don’t have an answer for, and when you pair him with the rest of that Ohio State roster, it gets ugly fast.

The only thing I’ve seen talked about online is Iowa covering the 14.5-point spread. Sure, I think they could backdoor into that. But if the basis of a bet is a backdoor cover, it’s not a good bet. That tells you everything you need to know about where this game is headed.

I think Ohio State rolls past Iowa in this game. And I’m putting my confidence where my mouth is. If I’m wrong on this, I’ll wear a clown nose. I’ll put up the same wager I had with Florida and Ole Miss. And frankly, I’m more confident about this game being an Ohio State dominant victory than I was about either of those. I believe the Buckeyes win big, and College GameDay picked the wrong game of the week to travel to.

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