College football’s 3 hot seat coaches aren’t as simple as they seem, and the most fireable one is being overlooked
Massive buyouts, embarrassing losses, and one big upset win have muddied the waters for three programs facing tough decisions.
Many college football fans expect Texas A&M’s Mike Elko, Florida State’s Mike Norvell, and South Carolina’s Shane Beamer to be on the hot seat. Each coach has had a rough first half, and the noise around all three programs is getting louder each week.
However, each coach’s situation is far more complicated than many people realize. Buyouts, program direction, and finances all play a role, and the coach most people are ignoring might be the one in the most danger.
What is going on with Mike Elko?
The first name to address is Mike Elko. He’s had a chaotic week after the comments he made following the Texas A&M Aggies’ loss to Missouri, and many now assume his job is in jeopardy.
That assumption doesn’t hold up. Why would the Aggies fire a coach coming off a year in which they made the College Football Playoff?
Understandably, the current picture isn’t pretty. Elko is 3-3, Texas A&M is 1-3 in the SEC, and the schedule ahead includes Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Texas. There’s a real possibility this team finishes 4-8.
Still, would A&M really spend $55 million on his buyout after what it just went through with Jimbo Fisher? Elko is far less detrimental to this program’s growth than Fisher was to its future direction. I just don’t see a world where Elko gets fired.
Mike Norvell should be gone, but Florida State is stuck
Mike Norvell absolutely should be fired. The problem is that the financial situation in Tallahassee is even stranger than in College Station.
The Florida State Seminoles were disgustingly bad against Louisville this past week. A failed fourth-down attempt turned what should have been a 21-0 lead and a potential win into an embarrassing 35-point unanswered run for the Cardinals. Louisville dominated from that moment on, and the game collapsed.
This team is done. Norvell is finished on the field, but moving on will be staggering. Per ESPN, his buyout and the overall cost of moving on could reach $68 million.
To make matters worse, Florida State reportedly owes over $430 million in debt from facility renovations. That puts the Seminoles in a tough spot. Firing Norvell is the right football decision, but the budget may force FSU to live with a coach who clearly isn’t working.
Shane Beamer is the most fireable coach of the three
The coach I believe is the most fireable is the one people are acting like is completely off the hot seat: Shane Beamer.
The South Carolina Gamecocks beat Florida 38-19 this past week, and that win flipped the narrative overnight. But does one victory really wash away the underperformance over the past two years and through the first half?
I don’t think so. South Carolina is 3-3, and it could easily finish 5-7 with Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Georgia still on the schedule. That’s a brutal stretch for a team that hasn’t shown it can consistently compete at the top of the SEC.
Beamer’s buyout is $22.5 million, and that’s not enough to keep him from getting fired. Compared to the figures attached to Elko and Norvell, that price tag is far more manageable for an athletic department weighing a change. If the Gamecocks stumble down the stretch, the Florida win will feel like a distant memory.
Money matters as much as results
All three coaches share the same reality: winning and losing tell only part of the story. Texas A&M has a recent playoff appearance and a painful buyout history to consider. Florida State has a coach who deserves to go and a financial mess that makes it nearly impossible. South Carolina has the easiest exit of the bunch, even if one big win bought Beamer some goodwill.
Hopefully, these programs make decisions based on where they’re headed rather than one week of noise, because the second half will reveal far more than any single result.
