Here are the three keys for Texas A&M to pull off the upset against Alabama. The Aggies are walking into a road environment against an Alabama team that has looked vulnerable. Tennessee already laid out the blueprint for beating the Crimson Tide, and A&M has to follow a very similar game script if it wants a shot.

To be clear, I’m a Texas A&M fan. This team gets my hopes up every single year just to rip my heart out. So believe me when I say I’m not handing out blind optimism here. I think there’s a real path, but it’s narrow.

Run the football and squeeze the game

The first key is simple. If you’re going to beat Alabama, you have to be able to run the football. We saw that with Tennessee.

If you want to be optimistic, KJ Edwards looked really good against the Citadel. The depth of this running back room is a real strength, and A&M should lean on it.

I’d keep Marcel Reed to fewer than 20 pass attempts, use his legs as a weapon in the run game, and squeeze the life out of this game. Shorten it. Keep the Alabama offense on the sideline. I think the Aggies have to play it that way, because a shootout in Tuscaloosa is not a fight they’re built to win right now.

Winning in short yardage is the most slept-on key

I’d argue the second key is the most slept-on factor in this entire game. A&M has to be highly, highly efficient in short yardage, anything with fewer than four yards to go. That carries into the red zone too, and that’s where things have gotten ugly.

There were times against the Citadel when it felt like the Aggies were banging their heads against the wall. They needed multiple penalties and extra plays just to get across the goal line. It felt like pulling teeth. That was the case against Arkansas, too. And then against Missouri, A&M couldn’t get anything going at all.

Frankly, it’s been a nightmare offensively. Need I remind you the Aggies haven’t topped six points in either of their first two SEC road games? That’s brutal.

And you may say, Tegan, the running game you just praised should fix that. Maybe it does between the 20s. But moving the ball and finishing drives are two different problems, and A&M hasn’t solved the second one. You have to flip the script, not only to put more than six points on the board, but to have any chance of winning this game.

Make Keelon Russell second-guess himself

The last key falls on defensive coordinator Lyle Hemphill and head coach Mike Elko. They have to make Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell second-guess himself.

That was the biggest thing Jim Knowles pulled off for Tennessee. He disguised looks, identified tendencies, and made Russell hesitate. Now, A&M won’t get the same advantage. Russell is going to be more comfortable this time around. There won’t be any Rocky Top playing over and over, and he gets a home crowd behind him. It’s going to be difficult to pull off.

But Alabama doesn’t have its No. 1 wide receiver. That matters. Without his top target, I think there’s plenty of room for A&M to speed Russell up and potentially force him into a mistake.

Here’s the catch, and it ties back to the first two keys. Forcing a mistake means nothing if you can’t cash it in. We saw that against Missouri. The defense gave the offense chances, and A&M put the ball right back in Austin Simmons’ hands. If that happens again, the turnovers are a moot point. You have no chance to win.

Where I land on the Aggies’ chances of pulling off an upset

I’m not going to sit here and tell you A&M wins this game. Alabama at home is a hell of a lot to ask for an offense that has looked this stuck in SEC road games.

But if the Aggies run the ball, convert in short yardage, and get Russell off his spot, I think this could be a ballgame going into the fourth quarter. That’s the bar. Anything less, and Tuscaloosa turns into another long night for an offense that can’t afford one.