I think I’ve figured out how Texas A&M wins the Battle for the Bonham Trophy against South Carolina on Saturday.

I get it. It’s been a tough season in College Station. And you may say, Tegan, we’re focused on basketball now, that’s what it is. I hear you. But most advanced analytics and models point to a one-possession victory for the South Carolina Gamecocks.

A one-possession game can flip on a single snap, and I can easily see this one flipping in A&M’s favor. Here’s why.

South Carolina’s backfield just got thinner, putting more pressure on LaNorris Sellers

The first thing that jumped out at me while breaking this game down is the Gamecocks’ running back situation. South Carolina will be without starting running back Matt Fuller, which puts a heavy reliance on quarterback LaNorris Sellers.

Now, Sellers has done a good job against A&M. He’s been one of the toughest players for a Mike Elko defense to deal with in about six of the last eight quarters against the Aggies. Say what you want about how this season has gone, but you can’t pretend that isn’t a problem.

But Texas A&M has the luxury of coming off a bye week. Elko and his staff have had two weeks to change their philosophy and replicate what we saw in the second half against South Carolina last season.

Two weeks of preparation for one player carrying the offense is a real advantage. If the Gamecocks can’t lean on the run game the way they want to, the whole thing runs through Sellers, and that’s a much easier puzzle to solve with an extra week of film.

The turnover battle can flip a projected one-score game

The biggest key for the Aggies in this game is winning the turnover battle. We’ve been talking about it for weeks at this point, and the Alabama game proved it. Outside of the two early turnovers against the Crimson Tide, that A&M offense looked quite competent. It moved the football, and it held the lead going into the fourth quarter.

If it weren’t for the collapse, the Aggies had a real chance in that game. That’s not delusion. That’s what was on the field.

And I think speeding up Sellers and winning the turnover battle go hand in hand. Make him uncomfortable, force him to make decisions faster than he wants to, and the mistakes follow. Take the ball away a couple of times, protect it on your end, and suddenly Texas A&M is playing with a short field instead of chasing points. That’s how you can flip a close game on its head.

Keep it ugly

The last piece is keeping this game low-scoring. South Carolina’s offense is red-hot right now. If this turns into a shootout, it’s a moot point. The Aggies aren’t built to win a track meet against a quarterback playing this well, and I’m not going to sit here and pretend otherwise.

But a grind-it-out, 20-something-points kind of game? That’s where Texas A&M lives. That’s where a defensive staff with two weeks of preparation earns its money, and that’s where one turnover swings the whole night.

So here’s the recipe. Speed up Sellers, win the turnover battle, and drag this game into the mud. None of that requires the Aggies to become a different team than the one that led Alabama in the fourth quarter. It just requires them to finish.

Am I telling you to go put money on A&M? No. I’m not putting 110 percent certainty on this one, and I’m not going to oversell a team that has broken plenty of hearts this fall. But the models already say this is a one-possession game, and the Aggies have a clear, specific way to win it.

The path to victory is more obtainable than Aggie fans are willing to admit. If Texas A&M plays clean football on Saturday, the Battle for the Bonham Trophy is staying in College Station.