Florida vs. Missouri Final Score Predictions: Experts are buying what Jon Sumrall is selling going into Week 5 matchup
The Florida Gators continue to prove that they are as good as we think they are, with their next test being the Missouri Tigers.
The Florida Gators are 4-0 heading to Colombia to take on the 3-1 Missouri Tigers.
While the Tigers have been solid with quarterback Austin Simmons firing the ball all over the field. Not having Ahmad Hardy is going to be huge within the context of the game, especially with Florida’s defense being inconsistent.
Who will get the important SEC win on Saturday afternoon? Let’s break it down.
Florida 45, Missouri 30
When I look at this matchup, the Gators are primed to continue maximizing their success this season. One thing that has stood out is their balance on offense. They have a 97th percentile explosive play rate, along with a 96th percentile non-explosive EPA/play rate. It doesn’t matter whether or not they generate an explosive; Buster Faulkner’s offense will get you.
On the other sideline, Missouri hasn’t been the most consistent team in the country, but Austin Simmons is slinging the ball all over the field. I think he will keep the game relatively close, but ultimately can’t get the job done. The Gators improve to 5-0 here.
– Tyler Forness, A to Z Florida
Florida 37, Missouri 27
After watching Florida’s offense dismantle the Ole Miss defense in such a simple and physical fashion, I am a believer in the Gators in this early 2026 season. I’m not nearly at title level belief yet, not until we see how they fare against Texas and Georgia, but there’s sleeper potential here. Dominant line play and a physical running game travels as well as about anything in college football, and Florida has that.
But their defense still leaves me with some questions. Florida is also going into Missouri high off an absolute beatdown of the Rebels and hearing how good they are. That potentially sets up for a letdown, and it takes a little while for Florida to get going in Columbia on Saturday. But that ground attack finally wears the Tigers down, and an explosive second half lifts them to a 5-0 start.
– Craig Smith, A to Z Miami
Florida 27, Missouri 21
Missouri should keep this game competitive for the majority of the afternoon, with Austin Simmons making several big-time throws to keep the Tigers within striking distance. Florida may struggle at times to create separation, but the Gators’ ability to make plays in the running game will keep the pressure on Missouri’s defense as the game moves into the second half.
Eventually, Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark make one too many big plays on the ground for Missouri to overcome. Their ability to consistently churn out explosive runs and extend drives allows Florida to control the clock late and put the game away. Missouri fights until the final whistle, but the Gators do just enough to remain undefeated with a 27-21 victory.
– Ryan Roberts, A to Z Notre Dame
Florida 32, Missouri 17
Florida is averaging 260 rushing yards per game, 11th nationally, at 5.9 yards per carry. Missouri’s defense is allowing only about 100.5 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. Florida’s offense wants to establish Jadan Baugh and the run game, force Missouri’s linebackers downhill, and then let Aaron Philo attack the resulting passing windows. This is the story of the game for me. This is the chess match, because Missouri may not be able to put any pressure on the pocket or slow the run game. They have injuries in the trenches and have already struggled there. On offense, Missouri just hasn’t been clean enough. Sure, Austin Simmons only has one interception. But he should have had three in their last game against Mississippi State alone. All three were drops. Give me Florida in this one.
– Justin Churchill, A to Z Oklahoma
Florida 33, Missouri 24
Florida is the biggest surprise in college football to this point, in my opinion, and Jon Sumrall has his team playing at a high level.
Missouri played a close one against Mississippi State on the road but came up short. They have the benefit of this game being at home, but I don’t think it makes much of a difference. Both of these teams have their struggles defensively, but the Missouri offense is just not close to what Jaden Baugh and the Gators have. I expect Baugh to have a big game on the road, and this might be the game where Aaron Philo puts up some bigger numbers than he has to this point.
It’s going to take a masterful game from Austin Simmons for Missouri to win this one, and even then, I don’t think it’ll be enough.
– Brandon Little, A to Z Ohio State
Florida 30, Missouri 25
The Florida Gators are riding high after knocking off the Ole Miss Rebels, vaulting themselves inside the top-10 of the AP Poll and looking like the best version of themselves in a long time. In recent years and regimes, this is a game that the Gators would drop. But with Jon Sumrall at the helm, I bet they flushed that win on Sunday morning and haven’t thought about it since. That’s the kind of program that Sumrall runs, and I guarantee his team is locked in on Mizzou.
The Tigers have looked better at quarterback with Austin Simmons, but we saw the limitations of this team last week against Mississippi State. With no Ahmad Hardy and a hungry Gators team headed to town, I don’t know if Missouri has the juice to knock off the Gators, so give me Florida on the road.
– Rob Gregson, A to Z Alabama
Final Prediction for Ole Miss vs. Florida
To nobody’s surprise, the Gators are unanimous favorites to win the game based on our experts’ opinions. Last week, it was 4-2 for Florida and the holdouts converted quickly. This will be a must-watch game.
