Everyone, and I mean everyone, is picking the Oklahoma Sooners in this matchup against the Michigan Wolverines. Coming off what we saw against Western Michigan and the magic that happened in Ann Arbor, the arrows are all pointing at Oklahoma to blow Michigan out of the water, even on the road.

And frankly, I agree. But this game is going to be a lot closer than people think but this Sooners’ defense is perfectly built to exploit Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood’s biggest weakness.

Michigan’s main offensive problem starts up front, not under center

If I’m Kyle Whittingham, I’m going into this game as if Michigan has lost Week 1, treating it like an 0-1 record. That’s how I’m treating prep, that’s how I’m treating practice, because that performance against Western Michigan cannot carry over against a much better defense.

After reviewing the film from the Western Michigan game, Michigan’s path to winning this football game runs through the ground attack. The offensive line showed flashes, but not enough for me to believe they’re going to take a massive jump forward. And I worry you’re going to run into the same game script from the first matchup last year, where you have a young quarterback and you don’t feel comfortable putting him in a position to throw the football.

Here’s the real problem: Bryce Underwood’s weakness is perfectly curated for what Brent Venables does best. Underwood will throw the football exactly where he is told to throw the football pre-snap instead of reacting to what’s in front of him. A guy like Venables is going to put his defenders in the spots Underwood is not expecting, and I think there are going to be some key turnovers, or turnover-worthy plays at the bare minimum, that will have this Michigan offense looking rough.

Oklahoma’s offense only needs to be good enough

Now, the other side of the ball is where Oklahoma separates itself. You have Isaiah Sategna III. John Mateer looks more poised than ever, and the throwing motion looks fantastic. I do think Michigan’s defense is going to cause some problems for the Sooners’ offense, more specifically the offensive line. I still don’t feel confident in the Oklahoma offensive line. But I think just enough explosive plays from Mateer and Sategna will be enough to win this game.

And you may say, if you don’t trust either offensive line, why are you picking Oklahoma? Because this is going to be a race to 20 points, maybe even 17. In a low-scoring matchup, I’m trusting Oklahoma to hit that threshold much more than I’m trusting Bryce Underwood and Michigan’s offense to get there against Venables’ defense.

That’s the whole equation. I don’t see either offense producing consistently against their respective defenses, and when both teams are scrapping for points, I’m taking the side with the more explosive weapons and the defensive coordinator who is built to exploit a young quarterback’s tendencies. Oklahoma wins a tight one in the Big House.