We are practically at the halfway point of the college football season, and it is time to reset expectations for the 2027 NFL Draft.

Few position groups have shifted more than the quarterback class. Arch Manning (Texas), Dante Moore (Oregon), CJ Carr (Notre Dame), and a long list of other names entered the fall with real first-round buzz. Not many of them have emerged the way we hoped.

On the latest episode of Best Pod Available, my co-host Joe DeLeone and I took a hard look at the class. There is still a lot of talent, but the 5-for-5 eligibility rule and NIL money could thin it out quickly.

Arch Manning is still a first-round quarterback

This might be a bit controversial based on the online discourse this week, but I thought Manning played a lot better against Oklahoma than his final stat line suggested.

I put the last interception more on wide receiver Cam Coleman than on the Texas quarterback. The overthrown crossing route that got picked off was a bad throw and a bad play. Outside of that, Manning hit a brilliant corner route and dropped a beautiful ball on the run to Coleman for the early touchdown.

I’m still in on Manning.

I have been waiting for him to take that massive leap into a franchise-elevating quarterback, though, and it hasn’t happened yet. The growth is there. It just hasn’t been linear, with some great moments, some steps back, and some regression mixed in. He is still a developmental player, but I believe he is a top-15 selection at worst and potentially a top-10 pick.

Joe made a fair point that Manning’s volatility cuts both ways. The highs are outstanding, and the lows are frustrating. At 6-4 and 230-plus pounds with the ability to run in the 4.5s, he is a big, strong kid who moves like a tight end. If Josh Allen could go in the top 10, Manning is still going in the first round if he declares.

Why I’m conflicted on Dante Moore

On paper, Moore checks a lot of boxes. He’s 6-2 plus, he bulked up to 220 pounds this offseason, he’s a former five-star recruit, and his mechanics are smooth. Every time I watch him, though, I want more.

This conversation reminds me a bit of Josh Conerly, the former Oregon offensive tackle. I liked Conerly, and he had just about everything you want at the NFL level, but something about him never fully clicked for me.

I feel the same way with Moore right now. Now that he is out with a concussion, we have to table him until he gets back on the field.

The eligibility problem

Here’s the thing about this class: very few quarterbacks look like guaranteed declarations. Any quarterback from the 2023 recruiting class now gets a fifth year of eligibility. Pair that with NIL, and unless a player is guaranteed to be a top-10 pick, a lot of schools can offer more money than a rookie contract will pay.

If Manning, Moore, Carr, Austin Simmons (Missouri), DJ Lagway (Baylor), Nico Iamaleava (UCLA), and others all head back to school, I wouldn’t be stunned. Joe believes Trinidad Chambliss is the one guy who has clearly done enough to go in the first round, and I’m warming up to his original take that Chambliss could sneak into the top 10. He moves well, has a good arm, is a smart player, and comes through in the clutch.

That brings me to my hot take.

I think Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State) is QB1 right now, and by a clear margin. After an awful first game, it looked like he needed another season to develop. Instead, he has stacked game after game for Oklahoma State and gotten better each week. He is the one quarterback with eligibility remaining who is clearly playing his way toward declaring.

Darian Mensah (Miami) also deserves a mention. DeLeone has thrown out a Bo Nix comparison for him, and he believes he is a likely candidate to declare and land at the back end of the first round. With the Cardinals, Browns, Jets, Titans, and maybe the Falcons potentially in the quarterback market, there will be demand.

Somebody is going to rise.

CJ Carr is the ultimate wildcard

The one quarterback I’m having the hardest time pinpointing is Notre Dame’s CJ Carr. Joe holds him in a higher regard than I do and would take him in the top 10. If everyone else goes back to school, Carr might want to take his shot.

That would put Notre Dame in a tricky spot. Unless the staff feels good about Noah Grubbs, Teddy Jarrard, or Champ Monds coming in as a true freshman, the Irish would likely have to go the transfer portal route. That’s tough for a program trying to make a national championship run every year, so I fully expect Notre Dame to make a strong push to get him back.

What we know about the rest of the class

The offensive tackle class is not good. I even tried to talk myself into Jordan Seaton (LSU), but his game against Kentucky reminded me he is exactly who I thought he was. The defensive tackle group is a lot more wide open than it looked in the preseason, and the safety class is fantastic.

DeLeone views Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State), Leonard Moore (Notre Dame), Colin Simmons (Texas), and Ashton Hampton (Clemson) as the guarantees in this class. I agree, and I believe Hampton is the second-best corner in the class. I’d add Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a lock, and I don’t even know if he’ll finish top 15.

As for risers, Georgia’s Chris Cole is a difference-maker with the right defensive coordinator. Tennessee’s Xavier Gilliam is my DT1, with five sacks and 10 tackles for loss while playing a lot of nose. His movement skills feel very Quinnen Williams-ish. It will be fun to see how the second half of the season reshapes this class.